碳减排“时-空-效-益”统筹理论:I.时间统筹

The Carbon Mitigation “Time-Space-Efficiency-Benefit”(TSEB)Coordination Theory:I.Time Coordination

在气候变化应对过程中,面临一种纵向的代际统筹,即当前人类应当或者愿意付出多大代价来避免未来可能发生的气候变化损失。对这一问题的回答关乎当代人与后代人的利益,需要权衡当前减缓气候变化的成本和未来气候变化带来的损失。然而,当前国际上对贴现率和跨期均衡路径的探讨暂未得出明确方案,亟需形成统筹长期与短期的碳减排理论,以指导相关减排路径设计。作为碳减排“时-空-效-益”统筹理论系列论文的组成部分,聚焦于碳减排的时间统筹,构建了跨期均衡路径,并设置了积极但不激进的贴现率,从而统筹当前减缓气候变化的成本和未来气候变化带来的损失,回答碳减排的跨期责任分担与成本分配等问题,应用于CEEP-BIT自主开发的中国气候变化综合评估模型(C3IAM)等气候环境治理与碳减排路径的研究中,为统筹长期减排与短期减排提供方法基础。

In the process of carbon mitigation,there is a intergenerational coordination of how much it will cost humanity to avoid possible future climate change.The answer to this question involves the interests of present and future generations,and requires a trade-off between the current costs and the future losses of carbon mitigation.However,the current international discussions on discount rates and intertemporal equilibrium paths have not yet resulted in a clear solution.There is an urgent need to form a carbon emission reduction path that integrates the long term and the short term.As part of the series of papers on the carbon mitigation “Time-Space-Efficiency-Benefit”(TSEB) coordination theory,this paper focuses on time coordination.It proposes an intertemporal equilibrium path and sets a positive but not aggressive discount rate,weighing the current cost of and the future loss caused of carbon mitigation.This paper analyzes the intertemporal responsibility sharing and cost allocation of carbon emission reduction,which is widely used in CEEP-BIT's self-developed China's Climate Change Integrated Assessment Model(C3IAM) and other studies on climate and environmental governance and carbon emission reduction pathways,providing a methodological basis for integrating long-term and short-term emission reduction.