“双碳”领域颠覆性技术度量与识别——基于多源数据融合方法

Measurement and Identification of Disruptive Technologies in the Field of"Dual Carbon"Base on the Method of Multi-Source Data Fusion

颠覆性技术是促进国民经济发展和提升大国博弈实力的关键因素,培育和发展颠覆性技术意义重大、影响深远。建设美丽中国是时代的责任,实现碳达峰碳中和是大势所趋。从学术论文、专利以及基于Google Trends数据的社会媒体数据出发,构建多源数据融合的颠覆性技术度量方法。以增长率指标、创新性指标和社会影响力指标测度“双碳”领域颠覆性技术,综合考虑技术对科学界、技术界以及社会经济界三方面的影响;在识别过程中,采用改进后的CDTM模型解决多源数据公共主题提取问题;通过客观赋权计算颠覆性指数得分,度量主题的颠覆性。实证分析识别出4项“双碳”领域颠覆性技术,分别是生物炭吸附技术、有机生物炭基肥料制备技术、生物质裂解生物炭技术和生物质热解生物炭技术。4项技术均与国际认可的CCUS技术相关,中国和美国在“双碳”领域研究中占据优势地位。

Disruptive technology is the key to the development of national economy and the core combat effectiveness of great power game competition,and the cultivation and development of disruptive technology is of great significance and far-reaching influence.To achieve the goal of"Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutralization",it is critical to strengthen green and low-carbon scientific and technological innovation,and closely track the international frontier's leading technologies.To this end,the measurement and identification of disruptive technologies in the field of"dual carbon"provide assistance to relevant government departments and enterprises for the strategic deployment of future industrial development,the scientific and accurate formulation of macro policies,the realization of technological overtaking,and the improvement of core competitiveness,and it has become a key issue to gain insight into the global"dual carbon"technology opportunities and seize the commanding heights of scientific and technological competition.Following the essential characteristic theory of disruptive technology,this study makes disruptive technology measurement that integrates multi-source data,including growth rate indicators,innovation indicators and influence indicators,and comprehensively considers the impact of technology on the scientific community,technology community,and social economy community.Among them,the growth of technology is measured by the growth rate index to calculate the difference between the growth of each topic in the current year and the previous year;the CIM model is used in the innovation index to judge the inheritance and breakthrough of the previous research in the paper or patent;social impact indicators are used to analyze and count the frequency of searches and other relevant statistics for a certain keyword displayed in Google during a certain period of time.In order to effectively identify disruptive technologies in the field of"dual carbon",this paper collects 38692 paper data and 9532 patent data,and retrieves the search frequency data of public topic representative words from Google Trends to form a multi-source fusion dataset.In the process of method selection,this paper selects the improved CDTM(Common and Distinctive Topic Model)model for topic extraction from multiple data sources.This method maximizes the utilization of shared information among multiple corpora,allowing for not only the extraction of specific topics for a single data source,but also the integration of paper and patent data to obtain a common theme for multi-source data.By analyzing the results of CDTM model and manually judging them one by one,10 topics are finally obtained for identifying disruptive technologies in the field of"dual carbon",and then the disruption index score is calculated to measure the disruption of these topics.Four disruptive technologies in the field of"dual carbon"are identified,namely biochar adsorption technology,organic biochar-based fertilizer preparation technology,biomass cracking biochar technology and biomass pyrolysis biochar technology.The analysis shows that all four technologies are related to internationally recognized“carbon capture,use and storage(CCUS)technologies”,and China and the United States occupy overwhelmingly dominant positions in the field of"dual carbon"research.Hence,China should provide preferential resources,continue to deepen technological innovation,and improve intellectual property protection.In regards to the technology bottlenecks,it is necessary to open the catch-up strategy for the world's core technology,increase the R&D investment in basic disciplines,and achieve technical overtaking on the bend to improve the core competitiveness.In view of the four disruptive technologies identified in the field of"dual carbon",it is suggested that the relevant departments of the government and enterprises focus on research and development,rationally allocate valuable and limited resources,and improve the efficiency of research and development.In terms of macro-government regulation,it is essential to improve the market diversification investment mechanism,encourage social capital to enter the field of disruptive technologies in a market-oriented way,and set up funds to provide financial support for them.In summary,the measurement and identification of disruptive technologies in the field of"dual carbon"based on the multi-source data fusion method helps to comprehensively understand the frontier of scientific and technological innovation in the field of"dual carbon",and provides a new basis for the identification and research of disruptive technologies.