从立业到成家:社会转型背景下教育与工作对初婚时间的影响

From Establishing a Career to Starting a Family:The Impact of Education and Work on the Timing of First Marriage during Social Transformation

从先成家后立业到先立业后成家的转变是我国青年向成年转型过程中的重要趋势,这种转变敦促我们重新审视初婚时间变化趋势及其影响因素。已有关于教育和工作如何影响初婚时间的研究大多聚焦于初婚时间的早晚效应,这种解释遮蔽了其影响初婚时间的快慢效应。基于中国劳动力动态调查2018年数据,使用离散型事件史分析方法,将风险期起点从15岁生理性成熟变为获得初职时间,考察教育和工作类型对于初婚时间快慢的影响发现,教育和工作类型会对个体初婚时间的快慢产生影响。总体而言,受教育水平越高,人们进入初婚越快;相比于个体工作,体制内工作者进入初婚越快。这种作用在不同性别、初婚队列之间存在明显差异。这为我们理解当前青年人的婚姻问题提供了参考。

The shift from“family before career”to“career before family”is a significant trend in the transitional process of Chinese youth into adulthood,urging us to re-examine the trend of first marriage timing and its influencing factors.Most existing studies on how education and work affect the timing of first marriage focus on the delayed effect,which obscures the effect of its pace on the timing of first marriage.This paper,based on data from the China Labor-force Dynamics Survey(CLDS)in 2018,employs a discrete-time event history analysis method,changing the risk period from the physiological maturity at the age of 15 to the time of obtaining the first job,to examine the impact of education and type of work on the pace of first marriage timing.The results show that education and type of work can affect the pace of individuals’first marriage timing.Overall,people with higher levels of education tend to enter their first marriage faster;compared to those who work in private enterprises,individuals with jobs in government institutions or public sectors tend to enter their first marriage faster.This effect varies significantly across different genders and first marriage cohorts,providing insights for us to understand the current marriage issues among young people.