中国养老负担时空演化格局及养老资源应对

Spatial-temporal Evolution Pattern and Elderly Care Resources Strategy of Elderly-care Burden in China

因区域经济发展、人口自然增长及迁移流动存在差异,中国各省份进入老龄化社会进程及其养老负担也各有不同,基于区域视角对省际养老负担及养老资源进行分析,有助于积极应对人口老龄化的资源统筹和社会发展决策。研究以31个省级行政单元为研究对象,结合“五普”“六普”“七普”人口数据及相应社会经济统计资料,采用空间数据分析方法识别养老负担的时空演化特征和趋势,并利用地理探测器阐释不同区域养老负担资源应对差异。结果表明:(1)中国养老负担整体趋势上升且速度加快,养老负担高龄化趋势明显;中国养老负担具有显著的空间集聚特征,但集聚态势减弱。(2)近10年(2010—2020年)与前10年(2000—2010年)相比,东部地区养老负担增速加剧,西部地区养老负担增速减缓;不同年龄别老年人养老负担存在省域差异,城乡养老负担倒置。(3)各项养老资源与养老负担的匹配度仍待提升,医疗资源、养老设施、政府支持、养老金融与总养老负担空间分布一致性逐渐减弱;高龄老人养老负担与养老资源空间匹配度最差。

Due to the differences in economic development,natural population growth,and migration,the process of entering an aging society and the burden of elderly care vary among Chinese provinces.From a regional perspective,the analysis of provincial elderly-care burdens and resources is helpful for proactive resource planning and social development decision-making of population aging.This study takes 31 provincial administrative units as the research objects,combines the population data of the fifth,sixth,and seventh censuses with the corresponding socioeconomic statistics,uses spatial analysis technology to identify the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics and trends of the elderly-care burden,and employs the Geographical Detector to explain the resource response status of the elderly-care burden in different regions.The results are as follows:(1)The overall trend of China′s elderly-care burden is rising and accelerating,with an obvious trend towards high aging.The elderly-care burden in China has significant spatial agglomeration,but the agglomeration trend is weakening.(2)Compared with the period from 2000 to 2010,the growth rate of elderly-care burden in the western region slowed down from 2010 to 2020,while it intensified in the eastern region.The elderly-care burden in urban and rural areas is inverted,and there are provincial differences in the elderly-care burden across different age groups.(3)The spatial matching degree of various elderly care resources and elderly-care burden still needs to be improved,and the spatial distribution consistency of medical resources,elderly care facilities,government support,and pension finance with the total elderly-care burden is gradually weakening.In terms of age,the spatial matching degree of elderly-care burden and elderly care resources for the oldest-old is the worst.