合肥市2011—2023年猩红热流行病学特征与趋势预测

Epidemiological characteristics and trend prediction of scarlet fever in Hefei City from 2011 to 2023

目的 了解合肥市猩红热发病特点和流行趋势,为该病的防控提供科学依据。方法 从传染病报告信息管理系统下载合肥市2011—2023年报告的4 340例猩红热病例资料,采用Excel进行整理和统计学分析,构建ARIMA模型进行发病趋势预测。结果 合肥市2011—2023年共报告猩红热病例4 340例,年均报告发病率为4.23/10万,无死亡病例报告。2023年同2011—2016年、2017—2019年、2020—2022年总体流行趋势曲线相似,均在5—6月和11—12月出现2次高峰;2011年以来,每2~4年出现1次疫情高峰。2011—2023年,全市9个县(市、区)均有猩红病例报告,市辖区年均报告发病率(7.05/10万)高于县城农村地区(1.62/10万)。合肥市猩红热高发人群为3~9岁儿童,男性年均报告发病率(5.22/10万)高于女性(3.19/10万)。ARIMA模型预测了2024年合肥市猩红热月报告发病率(3.67/10万)和发病数(354例),较2023年有所上升;在1月、5—7月和12月报告发病率各有1个波动高峰。结论 2024年合肥市猩红热发病可能出现上升趋势,建议加强多渠道监测预警,关注城区小学低年级、幼儿园学龄前儿童人群,警惕流行高峰期学校疫情发生反弹的风险。

Objective To understand the characteristics and epidemic trend of scarlet fever in Hefei City, and to provide scientific prevention and control strategies and measures.Methods Download the data 4 340 cases of scarlet fever cases in Hefei City from 2011 to 2023 from the China Infectious Disease Reporting Information Management System, organize and statistically analyze them using Excel, and construct an ARIMA model for predicting the incidence trend.Results A total of 4 340 cases of scarlet fever were reported in Hefei City from 2011 to 2023, with an average annual reported incidence rate of 4. 23/100 000, and no deaths were reported. The overall trend curve for 2023 was similar to that of 2011-2016, 2017-2019, and 2020-2022, with two peaks occurring in May June and November December. Since 2011, there had been a peak outbreak every 2-4 years. From 2011 to 2023, scarlet cases were reported in 9 counties( cities and districts) in Hefei City,and the annual average reported incidence rate in municipal districts( 705/100 000) was higher than that in rural areas(1. 62/100 000). The high incidence of scarlet fever in Hefei City was among children aged 3 to 9 years old. The average annual reported incidence rate of male(5. 22/100 000) was higher than that of female(3. 19/100 000). ARIMA model predicted that the monthly reported incidence rate of scarlet fever in Hefei City in 2024(3. 67/100 000) and the number of cases(354 cases) would increase compared with 2023, in January, May-July and December, the reported incidence rate had a fluctuating peak.Conclusion In 2024, the incidence of scarlet fever in Hefei City may show an upward trend. It is recommended to strengthen multi-channel monitoring and early warning, pay attention to the population of children in lower grades of primary schools and preschool children in urban areas, and be alert to the risk of a resurgence of the epidemic in schools during the peak period of the epidemic.