基于碳交易的人民币国际化路径研究——基于欧洲碳交易市场经验证据的启示

Study on the Path of RMB Internationalization Based on Carbon Trading--Insights from Empirical Evidence in European Carbon Trading Markets

金融强国理论是习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想的重要创新成果,为我们探索中国特色金融发展之路提供了重要指引和根本遵循。强大的货币是金融强国的基石,人民币国际地位稳步提升,将成为我国建设金融强国的重要支柱。在建设金融强国与稳慎扎实推进人民币国际化的背景下,本文基于能源革命的机遇,分析碳排放权交易对货币国际化的影响。基于国际货币形成路径,本文探讨了碳排放权交易对货币国际化的传导路径并利用TVP-VAR模型和欧盟碳交易市场2005—2021年的季度数据进行实证研究。研究表明,在欧盟碳交易市场建立初期,欧盟碳交易价格上升降低了欧盟经济实力和欧元国际化程度;但自2009年以来,欧盟碳交易价格上升提升了欧盟经济实力和欧元国际化程度;单纯依靠碳交易份额的扩张难以持续提升货币国际地位。基于实证结果,本文提出碳排放权交易推动人民币国际化的计价结算路径和企业成本路径,并建议通过“周边化—区域化—国际化”三步走战略,借力碳交易稳慎扎实推进人民币国际化,为建设金融强国,坚定不移地走中国特色的货币国际化之路提供理论支撑和决策依据。

Against the background of building a strong financial country and promoting the internationalization of RMB in a prudent and solid manner,this paper analyzes the possible impact of carbon emissions trading on currency internationalization based on the global climate crisis and the carbon emissions trading market derived from the energy revolution.By analyzing the path of international currency formation,this paper explores the transmission path of carbon emissions trading on currency internationalization as well as empirical research using the TVP-VAR model,and the quarterly data of the EU carbon trading market from 2005 to 2021.The study shows that at the early stage of the establishment of the EU carbon trading market,the EU carbon price has a certain inhibitory effect on the EU's economic strength and the degree of internationalization of the euro;however,since 2009,the EU carbon price has significantly enhanced the EU's economic strength and the degree of internationalization of the euro.In addition,in the short and medium term,the EU carbon trading volume can enhance the EU's economic strength,but its effect on the internationalization of the euro is gradually weakening in the short term.It is difficult to rely solely on the expansion of the carbon trading volume to sustainably improve the currency's international standing.This paper proposes the valuation and settlement path as well as the enterprise cost path for carbon emissions trading to promote RMB internationalization,and suggests a three-step strategy of“peripheralization—regionalization—internationalization”to realize RMB internationalization by means of carbon trading,to explore the focal point of the future strategy of RMB internationalization,to provide theoretical support and decision-making basis for the steady and solid promotion of RMB internationalization,to build a strong financial country,and to unswervingly take the road of currency internationalization with“Chinese characteristics”.