长三角地区绿色低碳发展水平评估研究

Evaluation of the Green and Low-carbon Development in the Yangtze River Delta Region

为打造绿色发展高地,协同推进长三角区域生态环境高水平保护和经济高质量发展,本研究从绿色低碳经济、绿色低碳环境、绿色节能降碳、绿色低碳生活、绿色低碳创新和绿色低碳政策6个维度选择29个指标构建长三角绿色低碳发展指数(green and low-carbon development index,GLCDI),并基于专家咨询法和博弈论组合赋权法确定组合权重,由下至上逐级加权求和得到2015、2018和2021年区域41个城市GLCDI得分,对比分析长三角区域一体化发展国家战略实施前后长三角地区绿色低碳发展水平的差异。结果表明:(1)长三角区域GLCDI平均得分整体呈上升趋势,且自2018年长三角区域一体化发展国家战略实施以来,区域整体绿色低碳发展速度加快。就具体城市而言,上海、苏州和杭州市绿色低碳发展水平最高。(2)长三角区域绿色低碳经济、绿色低碳环境、绿色节能降碳、绿色低碳创新和绿色低碳政策指数得分均呈上升趋势;绿色低碳生活指数得分先上升后稍有下降,但2021年得分依然高于2015年。(3)长三角一体化政策实施,对中等城市、大型城市和超大城市绿色低碳发展的促进作用更加明显。总体来看,长三角区域41个城市绿色低碳发展水平高低不一,区域间不平衡现象依旧突出。研究结果可为持续推进长三角地区绿色低碳发展提供科学依据。

Focusing on the national strategy of integrated development in the Yangtze River Delta to build a highland for green development,it is essential to promote the coordinated advancement of high-level ecological protection and high-quality economic development.Therefore,this study established a Green and Low-Carbon Development Index(GLCDI)system for the Yangtze River Delta region within the context of integrated development.This system comprises 29 indicators across six dimensions:green and low-carbon economy,green and low-carbon environment,green energy saving and carbon reduction,green and low-carbon lifestyle,green and low-carbon innovation,and green and low-carbon policies.Using the expert consultation method and the game theory combination weighting method,this paper determined the combined weights,calculated the GLCDI scores of 41 cities of this region in 2015,2018 and 2021 through a bottom-up weighted sum,and compared the status of green and low-carbon development in the Yangtze River Delta region before and after the implementation of the integration strategy.The research findings are as follows:(1)The average GLCDI score in the Yangtze River Delta region shows an upward trend,with a marked acceleration in green and low-carbon development after 2018,indicating that the integration strategy has significantly boosted green and low-carbon development in this region.At the city scale,Shanghai,Suzhou,and Hangzhou exhibit the best overall performance in green and low-carbon development.(2)The indices for the green and low-carbon economy,environmental,resource,innovation,and policy in the Yangtze River Delta region all show a continuous upward trend.The green and low-carbon lifestyle index initially increases and then slightly decline,but its 2021 score remains higher than in 2015.(3)The implementation of the integrated development policy in the Yangtze River Delta region has a more pronounced promoting effect on the green and low-carbon development of mega-cities,medium-sized and large cities.Overall,the 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta region exhibit uneven levels of green and low-carbon development,with significant regional imbalances still prominent.The conclusions of this study provide a scientific basis for the continuous promotion of green and low-carbon development in the Yangtze River Delta.