中国农业减污降碳协同效应的时空演进及驱动因素研究

Spatial and Temporal Evolution and Driving Factors of Synergistic Effects of Agricultural Pollution and Carbon Emission Reduction in China

深入探讨中国农业减污降碳协同效应的时空演进特征及其驱动因素,对于解决农业环境政策制定中的不一致性、提高政策实施效果、推动农业减污降碳的协同高效治理具有一定的参考和借鉴。基于2001—2021年中国31个省(区、市)农业生产数据,对各地区农业碳排放和面源污染进行测度,采用耦合协调模型对中国各地区农业碳排放与面源污染的协同度进行评估,在此基础上,分析中国农业碳排放、面源污染以及两者协同度的时空演进特征;采用时空地理加权回归(GTWR)模型从产业、要素和环境3个层面进一步探讨中国农业减污降碳协同效应的驱动因素。结果表明:2001—2021年我国农业碳排放呈现先缓慢增长后缓慢下降的趋势,农业面源污染总体上呈现波动上升趋势,农业碳排放和面源污染主要集中于产粮大省和粮食主产区;2001—2021年我国农业减污降碳协同效应呈现不断上升的演进趋势,各地区存在明显的空间异质性;农业集聚水平、作物种植结构、规模化经营程度和农业生产条件是农业减污降碳协同效应的主要驱动因素,且各因素的驱动效应存在显著的空间差异性。建议各地区建立健全农业碳排放和面源污染的协同防控治理体系和管控机制,构建共治、共享、共赢的跨区域农业碳排放与面源污染协同治理体系,改善农业生产条件,推进农业规模化经营,提高农业集聚水平,以推进中国农业减污降碳协同高效治理。

The in-depth study of the spatial and temporal development characteristics of the synergy between agricultural pollution reduction and carbon emission reduction in China and its driving factors is an experience and also a reference for resolving the inconsistency in agricultural environmental policy formulation,improving the effectiveness of policy implementation,and promoting the synergy and efficient governance of agricultural pollution reduction and carbon emission reduction.Based on the agricultural production data of 31 provinces in China from 2001 to 2021,this paper measures agricultural carbon emissions and surface source pollution in each region,and adopts the coupled coordination model to assess the synergy between agricultural carbon emissions and surface source pollution in each region of China,and on this basis,analyses the spatio-temporal development characteristics of China′s agricultural carbon emissions,surface source pollution,and the synergy between the two;and then adopts the GTWR model to further explore the synergy and its driving factors from the industry,elemental and environmental levels.Then,the GTWR model was used to further explore the driving factors of the synergistic effect of agricultural pollution reduction and carbon reduction in China at the industrial,elemental and environmental levels.The results show that:From 2001 to 2021,China′s agricultural carbon emissions showed a trend of slow growth followed by slow decline,agricultural surface pollution generally showed a fluctuating upward trend,agricultural carbon emissions and surface pollution are mainly concentrated in the major producing provinces and the major grain-producing areas;From 2001 to 2021,China′s synergistic effect of agricultural pollution reduction and carbon reduction showed an increasing trend of development,and there is obvious spatial heterogeneity in different regions;agricultural production conditions,large-scale operation,and the degree of synergistic effect of agricultural pollution reduction and carbon reduction in China have a significant spatial heterogeneity.Agricultural production conditions,the degree of large-scale operation and the level of agricultural agglomeration are the main driving factors for the synergistic effect of agricultural pollution reduction and carbon reduction,and there is significant spatial heterogeneity in the driving effect of each factor.It is recommended that each region should establish a sound system and control mechanism for the synergistic prevention and control of agricultural carbon emissions and surface pollution,build a cross-regional synergistic system for agricultural carbon emissions and surface pollution that is common,shared and win-win,improve agricultural production conditions,promote large-scale agricultural operations and increase the level of agricultural agglomeration,so as to promote the synergistic and efficient management of China′s agriculture to reduce pollution and reduce carbon emissions.