美国户外休闲产业发展特征及预测模型构建研究——基于PLS和PLS-DA方法的分析

Research on the Development Characteristics and Prediction Models of American Outdoor Leisure Industry——Analysis Based on PLS and PLS-DA Methods

户外休闲产业是美国经济的支柱性产业,分析其发展特征和构建预测模型对于我国健身休闲产业健康、可持续发展有重要借鉴价值。研究收集了美国50个州2021年户外休闲产业相关数据,选取27个影响指标,运用PLS和PLS-DA方法,对美国户外休闲产业发展特征进行分析并构建预测模型。研究表明:(1)美国州域户外休闲产业可分为4种发展模式,即总量大占比小型、总量小占比大型、总量较大占比较小型、总量较小占比较大型,4种发展模式在空间上呈现一定集聚分布特征。(2)构建的预测模型有效且精度较高,并筛选出12个VIP指标,经济、人口和社会因素似乎更多地影响美国户外休闲产业发展,而自然环境因素的影响相对较弱。

Outdoor recreation is a pillar industry of the American economy.Analyzing its development characteristics and constructing prediction models will have important reference value for the healthy and sustainable development of China s fitness and leisure industry.We collected data on the outdoor leisure industry in the 50 states of the United States in 2021,selected 27 impact indicators,and used the PLS and PLS-DA methods to analyze the development characteristics of the outdoor recreation in the United States and build predictive models.Studies show that:(1)The U.S.state outdoor recreation can be divided into 4 development modes,namely,high total amount,low proportion;low total amount,high proportion;total amount relatively high,proportion relatively low;total amount relatively low,proportion relatively high.The four development models present certain spatial distribution characteristics.(2)The prediction model is effective and highly accurate,and 12 VIP indicators are screened out;economic,demographic,and social factors seem to affect the development of outdoor recreation in the United States more,but the impact of natural environmental factors is relatively weak.