我国地质灾害气象风险研究的演变及趋势分析

Analysis of the Evolution and Trend of Geological Hazard Meteorological Risk Research in China

地质灾害是造成我国经济损失和人员伤亡最严重的自然灾害之一,气象条件是其中最具可预报性的风险因素,因此,对地质灾害气象风险的研究具有重要意义和价值。为提高相关研究的科学性和针对性,利用2008-2023年中国知网中“地质灾害气象风险”为主题的文献,采用统计学、科学知识图谱等方法分析了该领域研究的演变特征及发展趋势。目前,我国地质灾害气象风险的相关研究已经初步形成涵盖成因分析-指标因子-预警-评估-管理等的全链条式研究特征,但仍未形成核心研究团队和机构。该领域的研究专业性强,已有成果与预警业务联系紧密,尤其是GIS技术在地质灾害的气象风险预警中的应用处于核心地位。预计,人工智能方法在滑坡、山洪等灾害的气象风险预警的研究与应用中可能成为新的研究热点。

Geological disasters are one of the natural disasters that cause serious losses in China,and meteorological conditions are the most predictable risk factors,so the research on meteorological risks of geological disasters is of great significance and value.In order to improve the scientificity and relevance of the related research,this paper analyzes the evolution characteristics and development trend of the research in this field by using the literature on the topic of"meteorological risks of geological hazards"in the China National Knowledge Infrastructure(CNKI)during the period of 2008-2023,and adopts the methods of statistics,scientific knowledge mapping,and so on.The research in this field has been initially formed.At present,the research on meteorological risks of geologic disasters in China has initially formed a whole chain of research features covering cause analysis,indicator factors,early warning,assessment and management,etc.,but the core research team and institutions have not yet been formed.The research in this field is highly specialized,and the existing results are closely connected with the early warning business,especially the application of GIS technology in the meteorological risks early warning of geohazards is in the core position.It is expected that the research and application of artificial intelligence methods in meteorological risks warning for specific disasters such as landslides and flash floods may become a hotspot.