基于InVEST和CA-Markov模型的“十四五”碳储量时空演变与预测——以张家界市为例

Spatiotemporal Evolution and Prediction of Carbon Storage During the 14 th Five Year Plan Period Based on InVEST and CA-Markov Models-A Case Study of Zhangjiajie City

基于多情景模拟不同土地利用类型的碳储量,为张家界市实现旅游与生态发展提供建议。以张家界市2000年、2010年、2020年土地利用变化作为切入点,基于InVEST模型与CA-Markov模型,对不同时空的土地利用类型下的碳储量进行空间情景模拟和量化,探讨不同情景下的土地利用及其碳储量变化模式。结果表明:张家界市主要以林地、耕地为主,建设用地的增加主要来自耕地与草地;碳储量在空间分布上呈明显聚集性;碳储量呈逐年减少的趋势,共减少了0.35×10^(6)t。在不同的情景模拟下,相对于2020年,碳储量流失总量分别为3.44×10^(6)、3.04×10^(6)、3.99×10^(6)、4.93×10^(6) t。综合发展情景下的土地利用现状最为合理,能够为区域碳平衡和土地利用结构优化提供依据,助力张界市实现“双碳”目标与旅游高质量发展。

Based on multi-scenario simulation of carbon reserves of different land use types,suggestions are provided for achieving tourism and ecological development in Zhangjiajie City.Taking the land use changes in Zhangjiajie City in 2000,2010,and 2020 as the starting point,based on the InVEST model and CA Markov model,spatial scenario simulation and quantification of carbon reserves under different spatiotemporal land use types are conducted to explore the land use and carbon storage change patterns under different scenarios.The results show that Zhangjiajie City is mainly dominated by forest and farmland,and the increase in construction land are mainly farmland and grassland;Carbon storage exhibits significant clustering in spatial distribution;The carbon storage has shown a decreasing trend year by year,with a total decrease of 0.35×10^(6) t.Under different scenario simulations,the total amount of carbon storage loss compared with 2020 is 3.44×10^(6),3.04×10^(6),3.99×10^(6) t,and 4.93×10^(6) t,respectively.The current land use situation under the comprehensive development scenario is the most reasonable,which can provide a basis for regional carbon balance and land use structure optimization,and help Zhangjiajie City achieve the"dual carbon"goal and high-quality tourism development.