改进Ohlson模型在物联网企业价值评估中的应用

Application of Improved Ohlson Model in the Evaluation of IoT Enterprise Value

基于物联网企业技术投入大、高风险、高成长性的行业特征,其企业价值评估并不适合采用传统的企业价值评估方法,通过运用R语言进行随机森林算法的重要性分析,筛选出了对企业价值影响较为显著的前几大“非会计信息”变量,将其对“其他信息”进行替代,并用杜邦分析指标和净利润指标分别改进剩余收益,得到了改进的Ohlson模型。为了验证该模型具有一定的优越性,选取了相关案例对结果进行佐证,用“政府补助”代替“其他信息”得出的结论误差在10%的可接受范围内,但该模型仍有进步空间,提出了在“其他信息”变量的选取过程中结合物联网企业的特点从更完整的维度来选择。

Due to the industry characteristics of large technology investment,high risk and high growth of Internet of Things enterprises,their enterprise value assessment is not suitable for traditional enterprise value assessment methods.This paper analyzes the importance of random forest algorithm by using R language,selects the top several"non-accounting information"variables that have a significant impact on enterprise value,and replaces"other information"with"non-accounting information".The residual income is improved by using DuPont analysis index and net profit index respectively.Through the above series of improvements,the improved Ohlson model is obtained.In order to verify the superiority of the model,some cases are selected to prove the results in this paper.The error of the conclusion obtained by replacing"other information"with"governmental subsidy"is within the acceptable range of 10%,but the model still has room for improvement.Finally,the following suggestions are put forward.In the selection process of"other information"variable,the characteristics of IoT enterprises are combined to select from more complete dimensions.