比较政治研究中的因果机制探寻——基于过程追踪法的分析

Causal Mechanism of Process Tracing Method in Comparative Political Perspective

过程追踪法是比较政治学领域一种解释和分析案例因果机制的新的研究方法。运用类型学分析过程追踪法,有助于澄清过程追踪法的应用分歧,增强过程追踪法对比较政治学因果机制的解释力。过程追踪法可分为理论检验型、理论建构型和解释结果型三种类型。通过选取比较政治学运用过程追踪法分析因果机制的多案例作为研究载体,从因果机制构建、搜集部件证据和贝叶斯检验三个维度,总结过程追踪法在比较政治学因果机制的适用场景和解释逻辑等方法论层面的应用启示,有助于比较政治学因果机制研究方法的理论化发展。

Process tracing is a new applied research method in comparative politics(CP)that explains and analyzes the causal mechanism(CM)of cases.Using typology to examine the process tracing method(PTM)can enhance the explanatory power of CP’s CM.By selecting multiple cases in CP that use PTM to analyze CM,the paper explores the heterogeneity of three types of PTM:Theory-Testing,Theory-Building,and Explaining-Outcome,in three dimensions:CM construction,collection of component evidence,and Bayesian testing.It summarizes the methodological implications of PTM in the application scenarios and explanatory logic of CM in CP and promotes the theoretical development of CM research methods in CP.