技术范式下的创新发展:技术多样化与技术专业化的经济增长效应研究

Innovative Development in the Technological Paradigm:A Study of the Economic Growth Effects of Technological Diversification and Technological Specialisation

以颠覆式创新为引领、加快发展新质生产力是推动中国高质量发展的内在要求。本文设计了包含技术范式变革的知识生产函数,构造了技术多样化和技术专业化共存的内生增长模型,基于1985~2017年各省发明专利数据进行实证检验。研究发现:(1)技术范式变革引领了经济增长的周期性波动,缺乏技术范式变革是现阶段中国经济增长率下行的重要原因,当前处于新一轮技术范式变革爆发前阶段。(2)在既定的技术范式下,受知识溢出和范式限制的共同影响,技术多样化的经济增长效应随着地区技术种类增加呈现先增强后衰退的趋势。(3)随着地区中间品平均质量的提升,两类技术创新活动的经济增长效应均出现明显衰减。对加快发展新质生产力的政策含义是,加快加大一系列颠覆性技术基础研究和应用研究投入,实现技术范式加速变革;不断提升产学研合作自由度,优化生产要素创新性配置;因地制宜、因时制宜地进行预见性创新治理,推动各地区产业深度转型升级,先发地区应当完善多主体协同创新体系,推动技术范式变革,使得技术多样化加速涌现,后发地区重点进行有选择地促进技术专业化投资,再逐渐转向技术多样化投资。

Accelerating the development of new quality productivity led by disruptive innovation is an inherent requirement for promoting China's high-quality development.This paper designs a knowledge production function incorporating technological paradigm shifts and constructs an endogenous growth model with both technological diversification and specialisation.Using provincial patent data from 1985 to 2017,the research findings are as follows.(l)Technological paradigm shifts have caused cyclical economic fluctuations.The lack of such shifts is a major reason for the current slowdown,with the economy poised for a new wave of paradigm shifts.(2)Under the existing paradigm,influenced by knowledge spillovers and constraints,the economic impact of technological diversification initially increases but then diminishes as regional technology variety expands.(3)As the average quality of regional intermediate goods improves,the economic impact of both diversification and specialisation in technological innovation declines.Policy implications for accelerating new productive forces include rapid investments in foundational and applied research in disruptive technologies to achieve swift paradigm shifts.This also requires enhancing the autonomy of industry-academia-research collaborations for innovative allocation of production factors.Timely foresight in innovation governance is crucial for regional industrial transformation.Advanced regions should refine collaborative innovation systems to drive technological diversity,while emerging regions should initially focus on specialized technological investments before diversifying.