国际需求冲击如何影响企业产能利用率?——基于产量和产能协调的研究

How Do International Demand Shocks Affect Firms'Capacity Utilization? Research Based on the Coordination Between Output and Capacity

新国际竞争格局下外部需求冲击增大,企业如何协调产量和产能以避免产能利用率下降,对中国产业链供应链安全稳定和高质量发展至关重要。本文在梅利茨和奥塔维亚诺(2008)模型框架嵌入内生的产品质量选择,从理论上阐释了负向国际需求冲击对企业产能利用率的影响机理,并计量验证了企业协调产量和产能的应对机制。研究发现,国际需求规模下降引致的生产门槛正效应和质量提升正效应能抵减直接冲击负效应,该过程中企业间和企业内资源再配置能有效地提高产能利用率。进一步分析表明,行业特性具有重要影响,行业创新水平会增强负向国际需求冲击的产能利用率提升效应;对于产能利用程度较低的行业,负向国际需求冲击的产能利用率提升效应主要源于质量升级驱动的产量调整;在竞争水平低的高进入壁垒、低外向度、低产品差异化和低技术密集行业,负向国际需求冲击会引发产能利用率下降,反之,则促进高竞争水平行业的产能利用率提高。本研究为探索如何在应对外部冲击中升级产品质量和产业结构,从而为在“推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长”中增强产业链供应链安全稳定提供了理论支持和政策参考。

As the external demand shocks increase under the new international competition pattern,how firms coordinate output and capacity to avoid declines in capacity utilization is crucial for the security and stability of industrial and supply chains,and high-quality development in China.This paper provides an extended version of the Melitz and Ottaviano(2008)model with endogenous quality choice,and illustrates the mechanisms of negative international demand shocks on firms'capacity utilization.Then it empirically verifies the response mechanisms of firms in coordinating output and capacity.The research finds that the positive effects of threshold and quality upgrading,induced by the declines in international demands,can offset the direct negative impact.In this process,the inter and intra-reallocation can improve capacity utilization effectively.Further analysis shows the significant impact of industrial characteristics.Innovation enhances the promoting role of negative international demand shocks on capacity utilization.For industries with low capacity utilization,the impact of negative international demand shocks on capacity utilization is primarily driven by output adjustments associated with quality improvement.In industries with low levels of competition(high entry barriers,low export-oriented,low product differentiation and low technology intensity),negative international demand shocks can lead to a decline in capacity utilization.Conversely,industries with high levels of competition witness an improvement.This paper explores how to promote product quality and industrial structure in response to external shocks,which further provides theoretical and empirical support for policies to enhance the security and stability of the industrial and supply chains via valid quality upgrading and decent quantitygrowth jointly.