中国产业全要素生产率的动态演变——基于KLEMS框架和时序投入产出数据库

Dynamic Evolution of Industrial Total Factor Productivity in China:An Analysis Using the KLEMS Framework and a Time-series Input-output Database

在产业层面测算全要素生产率(TFP),有利于明晰中国经济增长的动力来源,从而确定培育新质生产力的着力点。本文基于KLEMS增长核算框架和自主构建的时序投入产出数据库,测算了我国产业层面的TFP,分析其动态演变;关注战略性新兴产业和数字化投入的影响,为此将工业分解为战略性新兴产业和传统产业,资本分解为数字化资本和非数字化资本。研究发现,第一,长期中战略性新兴产业的TFP增长率高于传统产业,促进了产出增长,且其数字化资本存量与TFP有正向关系。第二,传统产业的数字化投入增长缓慢,对其产出增长贡献很小,同时其数字化资本存量与TFP水平呈现负相关关系。第三,对经济总体TFP的测算和分解结果表明,战略性新兴产业是总TFP提升的主导力量,农业也起了一定的推动作用,但服务业和传统产业对总TFP的提升贡献不大。第四,从资源的产业间配置来看,数字化资本和劳动的再配置对总体TFP增长具有相当大的促进作用。

Measuring total factor productivity(TFP)at the industry level is helpful to clarify the driving force of China's economic growth,in order to determine the focus of cultivating new quality productivity.Based on the KLEMS growth accounting framework and a self-constructed sequential input-output database,this paper measures the TFP of different industries in China and analyzes their dynamic evolution,focusing on the impact of strategic emerging industries anddigital inputs.Industries are divided into strategic emerging industries and traditional industries,and capital is divided into digital capital and non-digital capital.The results are as follows.First,in the long run,the average TFP growth rate of strategic emerging industries is higher than that of traditional industries–which promotes output growth–and the digital capital instrategic emerging industries has a positive correlation with TFP.Second,on average,digital input into traditional industries grows slowly and contributes little to their output growth,while their digital capital stock is negatively correlated with the level of TFP.Third,the decomposition results show that the strategic emerging industries are the leading force in the increase of overall TFP;while agriculture plays a role,service industries and traditional industries do not contribute much to the increase of overall TFP.Fourth,from the perspective of inter-industry resource allocation,the reallocation of digital capital and labor has a considerable effect in promoting overall TFP growth.