5G向6G演进过程中的发展困境及未来6G发展建议

The Development Dilemmas in the Evolution from 5G to 6G and Suggestions for Future 6G Development

[目的/意义]5G及下一代移动通信网络作为落实网络强国、数字中国建设的重要新型基础设施之一,为深化传统产业数字化转型提供了升级动力。5G行业应用在我国得到快速发展的同时,也面临诸多的问题与困境,这是5G向6G演进过程中无法绕开的关键。本文旨在借鉴5G经验,探索方法提高6G关键能力和行业需求的匹配程度,为6G走出5G困境寻求方向。[方法/过程]本文结合未来数字化场景针对6G关键能力的全面梳理,从6G发展需要破解的两大困境出发,基于专家调研获取的未来数字化场景针对6G关键能力的需求程度数据,构建6G典型场景需求评估及6G垂直行业潜在价值空间评估模型。在此基础上,识别6G在各行业应用发展中具有共性的、应优先关注或值得推广的典型场景,为6G在不同行业的多波次推进提供策略依据。[结果/结论]基于模型输出,本文提出了“6G发展以场景为引、按需部署,破解需求和效益的发展困境”“尽早推动6G商业闭环顶层设计,提升技术与需求匹配度”“统筹5G和6G发展,加强产业培育,基于5G为6G挖掘需求并验证”等6G发展建议,并指出从需求和效益出发,优先针对潜在价值高的特定场景的技术演进是未来6G可持续发展的重要研究方向。

[Purpose/Significance]5G and next-generation mobile communication networks,as critical new infrastructure for realizing the goals of“national cyber development”and“digital China”,provide significant impetus for advancing the digital transformation of traditional industries.While the industry application of 5G in China has developed rapidly,it also faces numerous problems and dilemmas.These are crucial issues that cannot be bypassed in the future development of 6G.Drawing on experiences of 5G,this article aims to explore methods to improve the matching degree between 6G key capabilities and industry demands,and seek direction for 6G to overcome the challenges faced by 5G.[Method/Process]Through a comprehensive analysis of future digital scenarios and the key capabilities of 6G,this study addresses two major dilemmas in the development of 6G.It develops an evaluation model for assessing the demand of typical 6G scenarios and the potential value space in vertical industries.This model is based on data obtained from expert surveys,which measure the degree of demand for 6G key capabilities in future digital scenarios.On this basis,it is possible to identify typical scenarios with common characteristics,which should be prioritized or worth promoting in the development of 6G applications in various industries,thereby providing strategic basis for the phased advancement of 6G across different sectors.[Result/Conclusion]Based on the model output,this paper proposes several recommendations for the development of 6G.These include:“developing 6G based on scenarios and deploying according to demand to overcome the development challenges of demand and benefits,”“promoting the top-level design of 6G commercial closed-loop as early as possible to enhance the matching of technology and demand,”and“coordinating the development of 5G and 6G to strengthen industrial cultivation,exploring and validating 6G demand based on 5G.”These recommendations underscore a crucial research direction for the future sustainable development of 6G,emphasizing the importance of prioritizing the technological evolution focused on specific scenarios with high potential value,taking into account both demand and benefits.