美国典型智库对中国科技创新发展的观点分析及启示

Analysis of the Views of Typical U.S.Think Tanks’on China’s Scientific and Technological Innovation

[目的/意义]探索美国智库对中国科技创新发展的观点判断,对中国科技创新战略规划的洞察,以及对中国科技创新体系的测评,有助于拓展中国国家安全观下科技安全的情报实践。[方法/过程]本文选取2019—2023年美国8家典型智库发布的、针对中国科技创新发展的12份研究报告和2021年“中美科技竞争”研讨会专家访谈录,采用文献计量法、案例分析法、内容分析法等,总结美国智库对中国科技创新发展判断的观点及其特征。[结果/结论]美国不同派别智库对中国科技政策已达成共识,均认为中国的科技创新发展已成为美国在科技创新领域的重要战略竞争对手,重点关注中国的科技创新资源配置,但不同派别智库应对措施略有不同。开源信息已成为美国智库获取中国科技创新发展的主要情报源。其还善于搭建影响政府决策的平台,利用网络社交平台(如X、Meta等)来传播智库研究成果,间接影响美国政府决策。建议中国谨慎、适度处理开源信息,学习美国智库经验,提升中国国际话语权。

[Purpose/Significance]Exploring U.S.think tanks judgment on China’s scientific and technological(S&T)innovation and development,gaining insight into China’s strategic planning of S&T innovation,and evaluating China’s S&T innovation system will help to expand the intelligent practice of S&T security under the national security concept.[Method/Process]This study selects 12 research reports on China’s S&T innovation and development published by 8 prominent U.S.think tanks between 2019 and 2023,along with expert interviews of the 2021 Sino-U.S.Scientific and Technological Competition Seminar.Utilizing bibliometrics,case analysis and content analysis,this study summarizes the conclusions and viewpoints of these think tanks exploring the characteristics of their information sources and citation practices.[Results/Conclusions]The different factions of U.S.think tanks have reached a consensus on China’s S&T innovation and development policies.They all think that China’s S&T innovation and development has become an important strategic competitor of the United States in the field of S&T innovation,focusing on the allocation of S&T innovation resources in China,but the countermeasures are different.Open source information has become the primary means for U.S.think tanks gather intelligence on China’s S&T innovation and development.They are also excel at building a platform to influence government decision-making,and use online social platforms(such as X and Meta)to disseminate their research findings of think tanks,which indirectly affects the decision-making of the U.S.government.It is recommended that China handle open-source information cautiously and appropriately,and learn from the experiences of U.S.think tanks to enhance China’s right to speak internationally.