肝硬化食管胃底静脉曲张破裂出血患者经颈静脉肝内门体分流术后非计划再入院的危险因素分析及列线图模型构建

Risk factors for unplanned readmission after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt in cirrhotic patients with esophagogastric variceal bleeding and construction of a nomogram model

目的探讨经颈静脉肝内门体分流术(TIPS)的肝硬化食管胃底静脉曲张破裂出血患者出院30 d内发生非计划再入院危险因素,并构建风险预测列线图模型。方法选取2020年1月—2023年6月在南京大学医学院附属鼓楼医院因肝硬化食管胃底静脉曲张破裂出血行TIPS的241例患者作为研究对象。分析患者30 d内非计划再入院情况,并依据是否发生非计划再入院分为再入院组(n=36)和未再入院组(n=198)。收集患者临床资料,符合正态分布的计量资料2组间比较采用成组t检验,偏态分布的计量资料2组间比较采Mann-Whitney U检验;计数资料2组间比较采用χ^(2)检验。Logistic回归分析筛选出与非计划再入院相关的独立危险因素。建立列线图预测模型,绘制受试者工作特征曲线(ROC曲线)评估列线图模型预测非计划再入院发生的区分度;绘制校准曲线评估列线图模型预测非计划再入院发生的一致性,采用R语言Resource Selection包进行Hosmer-Lemeshow评估模型的拟合度,决策曲线分析评估模型的实用性。结果年龄(OR=2.664,95%CI:1.139~6.233)、CTP评分(OR=1.655,95%CI:1.098~2.495)、血氨(OR=1.032,95%CI:1.016~1.048)是行TIPS患者出院30 d内非计划再入院的独立危险因素(P值均<0.05)。依据多因素分析结果,构建风险预测列线图模型,通过Bootstrap法重复抽样1000次展开内部验证,ROC曲线下面积为0.773,高于年龄(0.582)、CTP评分(0.675)、血氨(0.641),校准曲线显示列线图模型预测非计划再入院的概率与实际概率具有较好一致性,Hosmer-Lemeshow显示拟合优度良好(χ^(2)=5.6473,P=0.6867)。结论年龄、CTP评分和血氨是TIPS术后30 d非计划再入院的独立危险因素,以此建立的列线图预测模型有助于预测行TIPS患者非计划再入院发生风险,为早期预防提供较为准确的决策依据。

Objective To investigate the risk factors for unplanned readmission within 30 days after discharge in cirrhotic patients with esophagogastric variceal bleeding undergoing transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt(TIPS),and to construct a nomogram predictive model.Methods A total of 241 cirrhotic patients who underwent TIPS due to esophagogastric variceal bleeding in Affiliated Drum Tower Hospital of Nanjing University Medical School from January 2020 to June 2023 were enrolled as subjects,and unplanned readmission within 30 days was analyzed.According to the presence or absence of unplanned readmission,they were divided into readmission group with 36 patients and non-readmission group with 198 patients,and related clinical data were collected from all patients.The independent-samples t test was used for comparison of normally distributed continuous data between two groups,and the Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparison of non-normally distributed continuous data between two groups;the chi-square test was used for comparison of categorical data between two groups.A logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent risk factors for unplanned readmission.A nomogram prediction model was constructed,and the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was plotted to assess its discriminatory ability for unplanned readmission;the calibration curve was plotted to evaluate the consistency of the nomogram model in predicting unplanned readmission;the ResourceSelection package of R language was used for the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test to evaluate the degree of fitting of the mode;the decision curve analysis was used to investigate the practicality of the model.Results Age(odds ratio[OR]=2.664,95%confidence interval[CI]:1.139—6.233,P<0.05),CTP score(OR=1.655,95%CI:1.098—2.495,P<0.05),and blood ammonia(OR=1.032,95%CI:1.016—1.048,P<0.05)were independent risk factors for unplanned readmission within 30 days after discharge in the patients undergoing TIPS.The multivariate analysis showed that for the nomogram predictive model constructed in this study,repeated sampling for 1000 times using the Bootstrap method was performed for internal validation,and the area under the ROC curve was 0.773,which was significantly higher than that of age(0.582),CTP score(0.675),and blood ammonia(0.641).The calibration curve showed good consistency between the probability of unplanned readmission predicted by the nomogram model and the actual probability,and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test showed good degree of fitting(c2=5.6473,P=0.6867).Conclusion Age,CTP score,and blood ammonia are independent risk factors for unplanned readmission within 30 days after TIPS,and the nomogram prediction model constructed based on these factors can help to predict the risk of unplanned readmission in TIPS patients and provide an accurate decision-making basis for early prevention.