价格波动如何影响天然橡胶种植户全要素生产率?

How does price fluctuation affect the total factor productivity of natural rubber growers?

探究价格波动对天然橡胶种植户全要素生产率的影响,有助于认识其生产行为调整,保障中国天然橡胶供给安全并完善相关产业政策。基于海南省儋州市和云南省景洪市48户天然橡胶种植户2015—2021年的观测数据,文章运用三阶段DEA模型和Malmquist指数法,分析价格波动对种植户全要素生产率及其技术效率、纯技术效率、规模效率、技术进步的影响。结果显示:(1)种植户全要素生产率随市场价格波动而变化,受技术效率和技术进步的共同驱动,从2016年的0.98下降至2021年的0.94,平均值为1.03,最高达1.15;(2)价格波动对技术效率的影响呈现短期效应,能引起当期技术效率的提升或下降,该变化主要源于纯技术效率而非规模效率;(3)价格波动对技术进步的影响存在滞后性,引发次年技术进步的正向或负向变化。2016年、2017年、2019年和2021年的价格上涨引起当年技术效率提高和次年技术进步,而2018年和2020年价格下跌导致当年技术效率降低和次年技术进步负向变化。文章首次从长短期两个层面揭示价格波动影响种植户全要素生产率的内在机理,丰富了现有农产品价格波动对全要素生产率影响的研究,并为提高全要素生产率提供了新视角。政策启示:短期看,鼓励胶农购买保险以提高技术效率;长期看,加强培训和研发支持以提升技术和管理水平,促进技术进步。

Exploring the impact of price fluctuations on the total factor productivity(TFP)of natural rubber growers can help to understand the adjustment of their production behaviors,ensure the security of China's natural rubber supply and improve the relevant industrial policies.Based on observational data from 48 natural rubber growers in Danzhou City,Hainan Province and Jinghong City,Yunnan Province from 2015 to 2021,this study employed three-stage DEA model and Malmquist index method to analyze the effects of price fluctuations on growers'TFP,technical efficiency,pure technical efficiency,scale efficiency and technological progress.The results indicated that:(1)Growers'TFP fluctuated with market prices,driven jointly by technical efficiency and technological progress.It decreased from 0.98 in 2016 to 0.94 in 2021,with an average of 1.03 and a peak of 1.15.(2)Price fluctuations exhibited short-term effects on technical efficiency,inducing either an increase or a decrease in technical efficiency in the current period,with the change stemming mainly from pure technical efficiency rather than scale efficiency.(3)The impact of price fluctuations on technological progress demonstrated a lag effect,precipitating a positive or negative change in technological progress in the following year.Price increases in 2016,2017,2019 and 2021 led to technical efficiency improvement in the current year and technological progress in the following year,while price decreases in 2018 and 2020 resulted in reduced technical efficiency in the current year and negative technological progress in the following year.This study elucidated for the first time the intrinsic mechanism of price fluctuations affecting growers'TFP from both short-term and long-term perspectives,which enriched existing research on the impact of agricultural product price fluctuations on TFP and provided a new perspective for improving TFP.Policy implications:In the short term,encouraging rubber growers to purchase insurance to enhance technical efficiency.In the long term,strengthening training and research and development support to elevate technological and management levels,thereby promoting technological progress.