失之东隅,收之桑榆:智能时代下老龄化发展与劳动生产率变化

What We Lose in Hake We Shall Have in Herring:Aging and Changes in Labor Productivity in the Automation Era

经济高质量发展离不开劳动生产率的不断提升。在智能化发展的背景下,探讨人口老龄化对劳动生产率的影响具有重要意义。综合使用人口普查、工业企业、机器人数据等多个数据库,发现中国城市层面的人口老龄化水平与工业企业的劳动生产率存在显著的正向关系,该现象存在于大部分制造业细分行业。这一结果背后的主要机制是在老龄化压力下,企业会更大规模地使用工业机器人,抵消了劳动力平均年龄上升对劳动生产率的不利影响。同时,人口老龄化也将导致劳动收入份额下降,对低教育程度的女性就业有不利影响。以上结果有助于理解智能化时代老龄社会中的就业趋势和经济增长新动能。

High-quality development of economy relies on the continuous improvement of labor productivity.In the era of automation and AI,this article explores the impact of population aging on labor productivity.Utilizing a comprehensive array of databases,the study finds a significant positive relationship between the level of population aging at the city level and the labor productivity of industrial enterprises.The primary mechanism behind this result is that under the pressure of aging,enterprises tend to use industrial robots on a larger scale,offsetting the adverse effects of the increasing average age of the labor force on labor productivity.Additionally,this article finds that population aging leads to a decrease in the labor share and has negative effects on employment for women with lower education.The findings of the article contribute to understanding employment trends and new drivers of economic growth in an aging society in the era of automation and AI.