城市群绿色技术创新对碳排放的影响——基于人力资本的调节效应

The impact of green technology innovation on carbon emissions from the perspective of urban agglomeration:The moderating effect of human capitals

“双碳”目标下,绿色技术创新在权衡经济高质量发展与降碳目标方面发挥重要作用。基于2006—2021年中国19个城市群地区的209个地级市面板数据,在刻画绿色技术创新与碳排放时空演变格局基础上,实证探究了绿色技术创新对碳排放的非线性影响,并讨论了人力资本对该影响的调节效应。研究发现:(1)2006—2021年中国城市群绿色技术创新水平整体呈上升趋势,碳排放增速先增后降,且绿色技术创新水平较高的城市群碳排放增速明显低于创新水平较低的城市群;(2)绿色技术创新影响碳排放呈先促进后抑制的倒“U”型关系,且受城市群等级、地理区位、低碳政策、城市产业结构以及城市规模的影响;(3)人力资本对绿色技术创新影响碳排放存在显著调节作用,人力资本的增加一方面强化了倒“U”型曲线拐点前的正向作用和拐点后的负向作用,另一方面使绿色技术创新水平的降碳阈值右移。研究结论为“双碳”目标下以提升人力资本为抓手,充分发挥绿色技术创新的降碳效应,贯彻绿色低碳发展理念提供了理论支撑和经验证据。

Under the goal of"carbon peaking and carbon neutrality",green technological innovation plays an important role in balancing high-quality economic development and carbon reduction.This article is based on panel data from 209 cities in 19 urban agglomerations from 2006 to 2021.On the basis of depicting the spatiotemporal evolution pattern of green technology innovation and carbon emissions,this paper empirically explores the nonlinear impact of green technology innovation on carbon emissions and discusses the moderating effect of human capital on the impact.First,from 2006 to 2021,the level of green technology innovation in China's urban agglomerations showed an upward trend,and the growth rate of carbon emissions showed the characteristics of first growth and then decline,and the growth rate of carbon emissions in urban agglomerations with higher levels of green technology innovation is significantly lower than that with lower levels of green technology innovation.Second,green technology innovation affects carbon emissions in an inverted"U"-shaped curve relationship that first promotes and then suppresses and it is affected by the level of urban agglomeration,geographical location,low-carbon policies,urban industrial structure and city scale.Third,human capital has a significant moderating effect on the impact of green technology innovation on carbon emissions.On the one hand,the increase in human capital strengthens the positive effect before the inflection point of the inverted"U"-shaped curve and the negative effect after the inflection point.On the other hand,it makes the carbon reduction threshold of green technology innovation level shifts to the right.The research conclusions of this article provide theoretical support and empirical evidence for improving human capital under the goal of"carbon peaking and carbon neutrality".With the improvement of human capital as the starting point,we will give full play to the carbon reduction effect of green technology innovation and implement the concept of green and low-carbon development.