广州外国居民的居留意愿及其影响因素研究

A study on foreign migrant's settlement intention and its influencing factors in Guangzhou

随着中国深度参与到全球化的过程中,外国居民在中国城市中的社会实践正在成为形塑城市社会空间的重要力量,其在中国的居留意愿及移民倾向引起了学者广泛关注。广州作为新兴的多元跨国移民增长中心,一直是外国居民在华的重要居住城市。本文基于2019年对广州市外国居民的问卷调查,分析其不同维度下的居留意愿情况,同时利用WLSMV估计法构建结构方程模型,从个人内在因素和外部环境因素两方面入手,分析了在华资源积累、消费服务偏好、社会经济环境以及社会交往意愿等方面对外国居民长期居住与移民倾向的影响。结果表明:①外国居民的移民中国倾向普遍较低,而未来愿意长期留在中国生活的外国居民所占比重较高,但存在群体间差异:青年或是低学历的外国居民的长期居留中国意愿相对较低,而年长或是高学历的外国居民的长期居留意愿更强烈,且亲缘关系、稳定的工作和已具有居留条件等可提升他们在华的长期居留意愿。②个人内在因素方面,在流入地的资源是国际移民生存立足的资本,外国居民在华的资本累积直接影响其居留意愿,而消费偏好对他们居留意愿的影响则未能显现。③外部环境因素方面,社会经济环境的客观差异影响移民的流动选择,进而影响其在流入地的融入策略和居留意愿,而主观社会交往意愿很难直接进行社会资本积累从而影响其居留意愿和决策。本文研究揭示了广州外国居民的居留意愿及其内部差异,探讨了在华外国居民居留意愿的影响因素,为外国居民的社会治理提供有益借鉴。

As China has been deeply involved in the process of globalization,the social practices of foreign residents in Chinese cities are becoming a significant force in shaping urban social spaces.Their settlement intentions and immigration tendencies in China have drawn considerable attention from domestic scholars.Guangzhou,as an emerging center for diverse transnational migration,has consistently been an important destination for foreign migrants coming to China.Based on a 2019 survey of foreign residents in Guangzhou,this paper analyzes their settlement intentions from different dimensions.Using the WLSMV estimation method,it constructs a structural equation model to analyze the impact of socioeconomic environment,resource accumulation in China,consumption service preferences,and social interaction willingness on the long-term settlement intention and immigration tendencies of foreign residents,from both personal intrinsic factors and external environmental factors.The results indicate that:(1)Foreign residents generally show a low tendency to immigrate to China,but a high proportion is willing to stay in a long-term,with differences among groups:younger or less-educated foreign residents show relatively low long-term settlement intentions,while older or highly-educated foreign residents exhibit stronger settlement intentions.Factors such as kinship,stable employment,and existing residency conditions enhance their long-term settlement intentions in China.(2)Regarding personal intrinsic factors,resources in the destination area are crucial for the survival of international migrants.The capital accumulation of foreign residents in China directly influences their settlement intentions,while consumption preferences do not show a significant impact.(3)In terms of external environmental factors,objective differences in the socio-economic environment affect migration choices,and further influence integration strategies and settlement intentions.Subjective social interaction willingness does not directly lead to social capital accumulation,thereby not directly affecting settlement intentions and decisions.This study reveals the settlement intentions and internal differences among foreign residents in Guangzhou,explores the influencing factors of their settlement intentions,and provides valuable insights for the social governance of foreign residents.Overall,this study constitutes a new attempt to examine the settlement intentions of foreign migrants in urban China,a topic that has been missing from the literature while being placed at the policy forefront with increasing importance.