马来西亚大选中的精英联盟、族群动员与印度人选民

Elite Coalitions, Communal Mobilization, and Indian Voters in Malaysian Elections

马来西亚印度人对社会、经济、政治上的边缘化不满,自20世纪90年代起逐渐开始族群动员。同时,随着马来西亚政党斗争日趋激烈化,其政治格局发生重大变化,政党和精英联盟发生分裂,由此马来西亚印度人选民作为关键少数的重要性逐渐显现。借鉴政治机会结构和族群动员理论进行研究,可以发现,马来西亚印度人在大选中重要性凸显是由马来人的精英联盟分裂以及印度人族群动员共同产生作用的结果。马来西亚政治制度的演变为社会运动和族群动员提供了空间,加强了民众的政治参与意识。而通过马来西亚2008年和2018年大选与2013年大选的正负案例对比可以看出,在马来人精英联盟分裂的情况下,马来人选票分散;一旦马来西亚印度人开展族群动员,则可能令其族群出现倾向性的集体投票行为。这两重因素叠加作用,使马来西亚印度人对该国大选走向和格局的影响得以凸显。

Malaysian Indians,dissatisfied with their social,economic,and political marginalization,gradually began to mobilize at the community level in the 1990s;meanwhile,with the intense struggle of political parties,the partisan political landscape in Malaysia has undergone significant changes,and political parties and elite coalitions have continued to differentiate,as a result,the importance of Malaysian Indian voters as an important minority vote has gradually emerged.Drawing on theories of political opportunity structure and ethnic mobilization,it can be argued that the importance of Malaysian Indians in general elections is the result of the fragmentation of the Malay elite coalition and the mobilization of the Indian community.By comparing the positive and negative cases of Malaysia's 2008 and 2018 general elections with the 2013 general election,it can be found that in the case of a split elite coalition of Malays,the Malay vote is dispersed;and once Malaysian Indians carry out ethnic mobilization,their community may exhibit a tendency towards bloc voting.Through the overlapping effect of these two factors,the influence of Malaysian Indians on the direction and pattern of the country's general election comes to the fore.