从农村贫困监测到低收入人口动态监测预警——理论和技术视角的阐释

Early Warning of Low-Income Populations:A Theoretical and Technical Perspective

贫困监测的目标是识别和统计贫困,为减贫政策的制定提供依据。贫困预警则是通过对低收入人口的动态跟踪并发出预警,实现对贫困风险的提前干预。中国农村扶贫开发既采用扶贫线跟踪贫困人口数量和评估扶贫工作成就,也采用多维贫困指标来监测分析农村贫困状况。从方法来看,农村贫困监测主要采用实地调查方法收集数据并进行统计分析。2020年以后,为了巩固脱贫攻坚成果和防止返贫,民政部门通过归集政府相关部门的数据建立了低收入人口动态监测预警机制。监测机制采用多维致贫指标体系,但贫困风险预警目前主要使用单维“触发式”指标。除了要发挥大数据平台的线上功能之外,低收入人口动态监测预警在主动发现、预警排查和分类处置等环节仍然需要大量的线下工作。总体来看,从农村贫困监测转向低收入人口监测预警是中国反贫困战略调整的必然结果,也是贫困治理理论和方法的创新。

Poverty monitoring aims to identify and assess poverty to inform policy,while early warning focuses on tracking low-income populations to pre-emptively address poverty risks.In rural China,both poverty lines and multidimensional indicators are used to monitor and analyse poverty.Methodologically,rural poverty monitoring primarily relies on fi eld surveys for data collection and statistical analysis.Since 2020,to consolidate the achievements of poverty alleviation and prevent the recurrence of poverty,civil affairs departments have established a dynamic monitoring and early warning mechanism for low-income populations by aggregating data from relevant government departments.This monitoring mechanism utilises a multidimensional indicator system for poverty,but currently,poverty risk warnings primarily rely on single-dimensional"trigger"indicators.Despite leveraging the online capabilities of big data platforms,dynamic monitoring and early warning of lowincome populations still require substantial offl ine work in proactive detection,screening,and targeted interventions.Overall,the shift from rural poverty monitoring to low-income population monitoring and early warning reflects a strategic adjustment in China's anti-poverty efforts and innovations in poverty governance.