基于全生命周期经济评估的海上风电发展与思考

Development&Thinking of Offshore Wind Power Based on Life Cycle Economic Evaluation

现阶段对海上风电经济性评估研究较少,而海上风电亟需经济性评估作为其大面积应用的基础。立足海上风电项目的经济性,首先,梳理了海上风电场的组成及发展,分析目前海上风电的3类6种发展模式;接着,将海上风电项目全生命周期分为初始投资、运营维护及退役回收3个阶段,分析各阶段的成本并搭建其数学模型;然后,引入净现值等6个经济指标评价了一个海上风电案例;最后,归纳海上风电当前发展及研究的不足,指明未来的研究方向,为海上风电更经济化的发展提供支撑和参考。

At present,the research on economic evaluation of offshore wind power(OWP)is poor,while OWP urgently needs economic evaluation as the basis for its large-scale application.Based on the economy of OWP projects,this article firstly reviews the composition and development of offshore wind farms and analyzes 3 types and 6 development models of current OWP projects.Then the whole life cycle of OWP projects are divided into 3 stages,including initial investment,operation maintenance and retirement recovery,and the cost of each stage is analyzed and its respective mathematical model is established.Then,6 economic indicators such as NPV are introduced to evaluate an OWP project for case study.Finally,the current progress and research deficiencies of OWP projects are summed up,which can provide a direction for future research and a support and reference for the more economical development of OWP.