地方主政官员对政府数字化转型的影响研究

Research of Mayors Influence on the Digital Transformation of Government

市长作为政府数字化转型的主要决策者,其特征会对转型有着怎样影响,学界尚不清楚。基于高阶理论与烙印理论,从人口学特征、经历烙印两个维度将官员与地方政府数字化转型纳入统一分析框架,讨论地方政府数字化转型绩效的影响机制。采集2018—2023年我国250座城市共626名市长数据,采用双向固定效应模型进行分析。研究发现:第一,市长的年龄、学历、任期、制度性烙印与地方政府数字化转型绩效呈显著正相关。第二,解释变量在不同区域、数字化水平的城市间存在差异化。第三,运用K-Means对绩效提升城市的官员进行画像,绘制出权威型、学者型、全面型三种类型,使用随机森林对变量重要性排序,各变量对政府数字化转型绩效影响的重要程度依次为制度性烙印、年龄、任期、学历、经验性烙印和技能性烙印。

As the main decision-maker of urban development and construction,the impact of mayors on government digital transformation remains unclear.Based on high-order theory and branding theory,the digital transformation of officials and local governments is included in a unified analysis framework from the dimensions of demographic characteristics and experience branding,and the impact mechanism of local government digital transformation performance is discussed.The study collects data from 626 mayors in 250 cities in China from 2018 to 2023 and employs a two-way fixed effects model for data analysis.The findings are as follows.First,there is a significant positive correlation between the mayor’s age,education level,tenure,and institutional imprinting and the performance of local government digital transformation.Second,the explanatory variables differ among regions and cities at different levels of digitization.Third,K-means is used to draw portraits of officials in high-performance cities,delineating three types:authoritative officials,scholar-type officials,and comprehensive officials.A random forest is used to rank the importance of variables,in the order of institutional imprinting,age,tenure,education,experiential imprinting,and skills imprinting.