中国南北地区差异的要素分解与政策启示

Factor Decomposition and Policy Implications of China’s North-South Regional Differences

21世纪以来,中国南北地区差异日益扩大,各增长要素作用差异明显。利用发展核算基础上的地区差异分解框架和1978—2022年中国省级地区数据,研究全要素生产率、物质资本、劳动投入对南北地区经济差异的影响,结果发现,南北地区总产出差异总体上呈现出持续扩大的趋势,但劳均产出近十多年来变化不大,劳动力和资本流入成为南方地区总产出更快增长的重要因素;全要素生产率差异一直是影响南北差异的重要因素,在很大程度上将会主导未来的区域差异趋势;物质资本差异受区域政策影响比较突出,但政策效果需要多方面协调考虑。要素分解对于缩小中国南北差异的政策启示在于,各地区要因地制宜发展新质生产力,进一步扩大改革开放,加快国际国内统一大市场建设,从而形成优势互补、高质量发展的区域经济布局。

China’s north-south regional differences have been widening since the new century,with obvious differences in the roles of various growth factors.Using the decomposition framework of regional differences based on development accounting and China’s provincial-level data from 1978-2022,we study the impacts of total factor productivity,physical capital,and labor inputs on the economic differences between the north and south,and find that:the difference in total output between the north and the south has continuously expanded,but the gap of output per labor has not changed much in the last decade or so;total factor productivity differences have been an important factor influencing the North-South differences,and to a large extent will dominate the future trend of regional differences;physical capital differences are more prominently affected by regional policies,but the policy effects need to be coordinated and considered in many ways.The policy implications of factor decomposition for narrowing the gap between the north and the south of China are that each region should develop new quality productive forces according to local conditions,further expand reform and opening up,and accelerate the construction of a unified large market at home and abroad,so as to form a regional economic layout with complementary advantages and high-quality development.