贵州省生态系统服务权衡时空动态与驱动因子评估

Spatiotemporal dynamics and driving factor assessment of ecosystem service trade-offs in Guizhou Province

贵州省是典型的喀斯特地区,生态系统脆弱,评估该区生态系统服务(Ecosystemservice,ES)权衡关系及其驱动因子,对优化生态系统服务模式具有重要意义.研究基于InVEST模型估算了贵州省2000-2020年碳储量、生境质量、产水量、土壤保持量和粮食供给量;利用相关分析和贝叶斯网络模型,分析了ES权衡关系变化的驱动因子,识别了ES权衡关系增强的潜在区域.结果表明:①贵州省5项ES及其两两之间存在权衡关系的区域分布均有明显的时空异质性;②2000-2020年,除“碳储量与土壤保持”外,各组ES间权衡的区域面积均增加;ES间权衡关系增强的区域占比为10%~41%;③各组ES间权衡关系增强的概率均大于30%,对ES权衡关系变化影响最大的变量为年均气温、年降水量和年蒸散量;④ES权衡关系增强的潜在区域主要分布在贵州省东部地区.综上,贵州省ES间的权衡情况较为严重,遵义、铜仁和黔东南州等地区应是制定生态管理策略的重点关注区域.本研究可为优化贵州省生态系统服务分布格局、生态环境的可持续发展提供科学依据.

The ecosystem of Guizhou Province is fragile based on karst geological background.Assessing the trade-offs among ecosystem services(ESs)and their driving factors in Guizhou Province is crucial for optimizing ecosystem service models.This study used the InVEST model to calculate carbon storage(C),habitat quality(HQ),water yield(WY),soil conservation(SDR),and grain production(GP)in Guizhou Province from 2000 to 2020.By combining correlation analysis and Bayesian belief networks(BBN),the driving factors of ES trade-off changes were analyzed,and potential regions of ES trade-off increased were identified.The results showed that:①Spatiotemporal heterogeneity was significant in the distribution of five ESs and pairwise ES groups trade-offs in Guizhou Province.②From 2000 to 2020,the areas of different ES groups increased,except for the“C and SDR”.The proportion of the region where ES trade-offs increased ranged from 10%to 41%.③The probability of different ES groups trade-offs increased exceeded 30%.The most significant impact factors to ES trade-offs were annual average temperature,annual precipitation,and annual evapotranspiration.④The potential regions of ES trade-offs increased mainly distributed in the eastern Guizhou Province.In conclusion,the situation of ES trade-offs were severe in Guizhou Province.The eastern regions,including Zunyi,Tongren,and Qiandongnan,should be the primary focus for developing ecological management strategies.This study provides a scientific basis for optimizing the distribution pattern of ecosystem services and promoting sustainable ecological development in Guizhou Province.