数字化的碳排放效应:文献述评与研究展望

The Impact of Digitalization on Carbon Emissions:A Critical Review and Research Perspectives

当前,以数字技术创新与应用为特征的数字化日益成为降低碳排放和推进经济社会发展全面绿色转型的重要手段与工具。但是,数字化是否必然促进碳减排尚无共识,相关研究仍处于探索阶段,缺乏理论阐述,实证结果不一。为厘清数字化与碳排放的复杂关系,探究数字化的碳排放效应,本文对国内外相关研究进行系统梳理和评述。首先,基于理论溯源与演进,对数字化与碳排放关系的理论阐释进行系统归纳,总结提出了三层次、三阶段、四阶段、系统嵌套等多维理论分析框架,为相关研究奠定了学理基础;其次,归纳总结了数字化影响碳排放的四种机理,为探究数字化与碳排放的关系提供了分析思路;再次,梳理和综述了当前关于数字化碳排放效应的实证进展;最后,在前述基础上提出了未来研究的方向。

The interaction between the digital revolution and climate change has prompted significant interest in understanding the role of digitalization in promoting low-carbon development.As scholars both domestically and internationally investigate whether digital technologies can effectively reduce carbon emissions,the discourse has evolved into a critical area of inquiry.This paper synthesizes existing literature on the carbon emission effects of digitalization,presenting a structured analysis across three dimensions:theoretical frameworks,mechanism analyses,and empirical validations.Digitalization is characterized as a general-purpose technology,differentiating it from traditional technologies through its systemic,multi-layered,and structural impacts on the economic environment.Such characteristics signify that the effects of digitalization on carbon emissions extend beyond conventional analytical frameworks of technological economics.The neo-classical economic growth model,which has historically served as a theoretical basis for understanding economic interactions,appears increasingly inadequate in fully elucidating the complex dynamics between digital technology and carbon emissions.This inadequacy highlights the necessity for a reevaluation of the theoretical underpinnings that inform research on the environmental impacts of digitization,signaling it as a prominent frontier in scholarly inquiry.In exploring these impacts,researchers have turned to multi-level analytical approaches,uncovering various mechanisms that elucidate the interplay between digitalization and environmental outcomes.Noteworthy among these mechanisms are several critical effects:the substitution and income effects of digitalization on energy consumption,which imply that the introduction of digital technologies can lead to improved efficiencies and altered consumption behaviors;the efficiency effects of digital technologies on energy technologies themselves,fostering advancements in clean energy solutions;the transformation effects that accompany digitalization,prompting shifts in economic structures towards more sustainable practices;and enabling effects that enhance the capacity of individuals and organizations to engage in environmentally friendly behaviors.The complexity inherent in these different mechanisms yields diverse outcomes,accentuating the need for rigorous empirical testing of the relationship between digitalization and carbon emissions.Thus,this area of research has garnered attention,as evidenced by the substantial body of literature employing econometric methods to explore these relationships.Predominantly,studies within this domain leverage a variety of samples,timeframes,and methodologies to analyze how digitization influences carbon emissions and sustainability efforts.Nevertheless,perspectives on the ability of digitalization to facilitate a transition towards green,low-carbon economies remain varied and sometimes contentious.Contemporary empirical research has increasingly gravitated toward direct estimations of carbon emissions linked to digital development,particularly focusing on the concept of implicit carbon through environmental assessment paradigms.This methodological shift signifies an evolving understanding of the ecological footprint associated with the proliferation of digital technologies.Within the context of China,research has predominantly centered on testing the relationship between digitization and carbon emissions,revealing that nearly 94%of empirical studies support the assertion that digitalization can contribute to carbon reduction.Such contributions are typically framed in promoting technological innovation and fostering structural transformation within industries.However,despite this supportive empirical evidence,there remains a notable gap in understanding the theoretical foundations that underpin the positive correlations between digitalization and carbon reduction.This lack of theoretical engagement raises concerns regarding the potential overestimation of the positive impacts attributed to digitalization.As a developing country,China's experience offers unique insights,especially given the continuing expansion of its industrial economy alongside the rapid advancement of its digital economy.Notably,while digital technologies are swiftly integrating into traditional economic sectors,the country's energy system has not yet achieved a predominant transition towards renewable energy sources,complicating the narrative of digitization's impact on sustainability.The actual effects of digital development on carbon emissions may diverge from findings observed in empirical studies,indicating a need for further investigation into this dynamic.As such,the article advocates for an enhanced emphasis on the theoretical exploration of carbon emission effects related to digitalization.It underscores the importance of comprehensively understanding the specific mechanisms through which digitalization influences carbon emissions to provide a more nuanced perspective on its potential benefits.Furthermore,this discourse encourages researchers to conduct more targeted assessments of digitalization's carbon emission effects,particularly in relation to its application within various industries in China.As digital technologies continue to evolve,policymakers and stakeholders must acquire a holistic and objective understanding of the carbon reduction effects attributed to digitalization.By doing so,strategic decisions can be made that leverage digital advancements to foster economic growth while simultaneously addressing pressing environmental challenges.Overall,the intersection of digitalization and climate change remains a fertile ground for academic exploration,necessitating a balanced integration of theoretical and empirical approaches to elucidate the complex relationships at play.Understanding these dynamics not only aids in effective policymaking but also contributes to the broader discourse on sustainability and climate resilience in the face of ongoing technological advancements.