制造业何以不振:激励机制视角下菲律宾的去工业化

Why Is Manufacturing Failing:A Micromechanical Study of Deindustrialization in the Philippines

制造业的规模扩张与技术升级进程出现停滞甚至逆转,是当代后发国家面临的重要挑战。现有文献主要解读不同国家间出现去工业化的共性原因,尚未系统解释国别差异。本文提出从国内经济条件出发,同时关注微观层面激励机制的框架,以此对菲律宾的结构转型进程进行分析。研究发现,20世纪末以来的菲律宾结构转型以中低端服务业的扩张为主,抑制了生产率的持续提升与发展成果的共享。而造成这种局面的主要原因是激励结构的扭曲:菲律宾政府并未积极改善境内产业园区的治理水平以吸引国际投资者,反而在金融、地产等领域纵容了较高程度的寡头垄断与寻租行为,从而导致经济资源向非制造业与境外流动。本文的结论对发展理论与政策实践都有所启示。

The stagnation or even reversal of expansion and technological upgrading of manufacturing is an important challenge for contemporary developing countries.Existing literature focuses on interpreting the common causes of deindustrialization among different countries,and it is still difficult to systematically explain the differences between countries.This paper presents a framework for analyzing the process of structural transformation in the Philippines,starting from domestic economic conditions and focusing on incentives at the micro level.The study found that the structural transformation of the Philippines since the end of the last century has been dominated by the expansion of the low-end service industry.This transformation model has inhibited the continuous improvement of productivity and the sharing of development results.The main reason for this situation is the distortion of the incentive structure:the Philippine government did not actively improve the governance level of domestic industrial parks to attract international investors,but instead condoned a relatively high degree of oligopoly and rent-seeking in the fields of finance and real estate behavior,thereby guiding the flow of economic resources to non-manufacturing and overseas opportunities.The conclusions of this paper offer insights for both development theory and policy practice.