墨西哥气候政策变迁的演进逻辑——基于历史制度主义的分析

The Evolutionary Logic of Mexico’s Climate Policy:A Historical Institutionalist Analysis

墨西哥是全球南方国家中探索与实践气候政策的先行者,考察墨西哥气候政策演变的因果机制,对理解发展中国家参与全球气候治理的行为具有重要意义。基于历史制度主义的理论视角,可以从历史情境与结构要素两个维度分析墨西哥气候政策变迁大致经历的萌芽、探索和深化三个阶段。研究发现,在这一政策演变过程中,国际气候治理潮流、外部施压、执政者的重视以及多元社会主体的参与共同构成了政策变迁的结构性逻辑;《能源转型法》颁布的关键节点、利益诉求与变革驱动形塑的路径依赖以及传统政治文化弊病的“历史否决点”,共同构成了政策变迁的历史性逻辑。运用历史制度主义分析墨西哥气候政策变迁的关键驱动因素和面临的挑战,有助于我们深刻认识以墨西哥为代表的拉丁美洲发展中国家气候政策演进的底层逻辑,为加强南方国家气候合作提供启发。

As a pioneer in climate policy exploration and implementation within the Global South,Mexico offers critical insights into the factors motivating developing countries’participation in global climate governance.This paper employs a historical institutionalist framework to analyze the evolution of Mexico’s climate policy.Examining historical context and structural factors,the paper identifies three distinct phases:an embryonic period,an exploration period,and a deepening period.This evolutionary process reveals a distinct structural logic driven by trends in international climate governance,external pressures,leadership emphasis,and the participation of diverse social actors.Simultaneously,a historical logic is apparent,shaped by the enactment of the Energy Transition Law,the path dependence created by evolving interests and a drive for change,and the political and cultural barriers that have historically impeded progress.Analyzing Mexico’s climate policy through the lens of historical institutionalism enhances our understanding of the underlying logic driving climate policy evolution in developing countries across Latin America,offering valuable insights for strengthening climate cooperation among Global South nations.