新发展格局下人口结构变化对外贸依存度的影响机理研究

Research on the Impact Mechanism of Population Structure Changes on Foreign Trade Dependence under the New Development Paradigm

在加快构建新发展格局进程中,外贸依存度是一个关键变量,而人口结构的变化所导致的消费和生产变化,又是决定外贸依存度的最重要因素之一。研究建立了人口结构与外贸依存度的理论模型,选择42个国家1980—2022年的面板数据,并引入政府和家庭消费份额作为中介变量,实体部门杠杆率作为调节变量,研究人口结构影响外贸依存度的机理,结果发现:城镇化率、年龄抚养比、老龄化率、劳动力参与率、女性劳动力占比等人口结构,与外贸依存度之间存在显著的正向关系,在发达国家、高人均GDP国家更为显著;城镇化率通过消费份额影响外贸依存度,政府消费份额、家庭消费份额起部分中介效应的作用;政府、家庭和非金融企业部门杠杆率强化了城镇化率对外贸依存度的正向作用。

Foreign trade dependence is a key variable in the process of accelerating the construction of a new development paradigm,and changes in consumption and production caused by change of population structure are important factors determining foreign trade dependence.This paper establishes a theoretical model of population structure and foreign trade dependence,selects panel data of 42 countries from 1980 to 2022,and introduces government and household consumption shares as mediating variables,and real sector leverage ratio as moderating variables to study the mechanism of population structure affecting foreign trade dependence.The results show that there is a significant positive relationship between population structure and foreign trade dependence,such as urbanization rate,age dependency ratio,aging rate,labor force participation rate,and female labor force proportion,which is more significant in developed countries and high per capita GDP countries.Urbanization rate affects foreign trade dependence through consumption share,with government and households consumption share playing a partial mediating role.Leverage ratio of the government,households,and non-financial corporate sectors has strengthened the positive effect of urbanization rate on foreign trade dependence.