出口管制、转换成本与库存效率——基于美国实体清单的微观证据

Export Administrations,Switching Costs,and Inventory Efficiency:Firm Level Evidence from the Entity List

在国际竞争日趋激烈复杂的背景下,守成大国的技术封锁已成为我国不得不面临的重要现实问题。2018年以来,美国将我国大量企业列入出口管制实体清单,通过限制对被管制企业出口特定商品,切断对被管制企业生产所需包含关键核心技术的原材料、零部件、机器设备的提供。由于关键核心技术不易于模仿掌握,出口管制可能导致企业生产环节由于缺失包含关键核心技术的材料而无法完成,使得其他用于生产的非产成品库存滞留于企业内部而无法转化为产成品,从而降低库存效率。基于此,文章以美国将我国企业列入实体清单事件为外生冲击,采用双重差分方法探究出口管制对被管制企业库存效率的影响。研究发现,出口管制显著降低了被管制企业的库存效率,具体表现为非产成品库存占比增多、库存周转天数拉长。面临出口管制时转换成本较高的企业韧性能力较弱,即对于供应链集中度较高、业务多角化程度较低、缺乏非美国进口渠道的企业,出口管制对库存效率的负面影响更为显著。进一步分析发现,政府加强资金支持、企业提升研发创新能力有助于缓解出口管制对库存效率的负面影响。文章为合理应对贸易摩擦、维护产业链安全、加快实现高水平科技自立自强提供理论依据和现实参考。

Under the background of increasingly intensified and complicated international competition,the technology blockade of the great-powers has become a realistic problem of crucial importance for China.The United States has included a large number of Chinese enterprises to the Entity List of export administrations since 2018,restricting the export of specific commodities to Chinese enterprises.These kinds of commodities include raw materials,components and equipment containing key technologies which are necessary for the production process.As the key technologies are relatively hard for other countries to imitate and master,export administrations of the United States may cause the production process of Chinese firms being involved in the Entity List unable to complete because of lacking materials with key technologies.Under this circumstances,other unfinished goods involved in the production process and not imported from the United States have to backlog within the enterprise and unable to change into finished goods on time.Thus,inventory efficiency of Chinese enterprises being involved into the Entity List may be reduced.Based on the above analysis,using the cases of Chinese firms being added to the Entity List of export administrations as exogenous shocks,we conduct a difference-in-differences analysis to examine the impact of export administrations of the United States on inventory efficiency of firms being involved in the Entity List.We find that export administrations have significantly reduced inventory efficiency of Chinese firms being involved in the Entity List.Compared with firms not involved in the Entity List,firms suffered from export administrations of the United States have more proportion of unfinished goods and longer days inventory outstanding.The heterogeneity analysis shows that firms with higher switching costs show less resilient in export administrations,namely the negative impact of export administrations on inventory efficiency is greater for firms with higher supply chain concentration,lower degree of diversification,and fewer overseas import channels.Further analysis reveals that the financial support of government and stronger innovation capabilities of firms can mitigate the negative impact of export administrations on firms'inventory efficiency.Our study provides theoretical and practical implications for taking countermeasures against Sino-U.S.trade friction,maintaining the security of China's industrial chains and moving faster to achieve China's greater self-reliance and strength in science and technology.