荆州市城市扩张与耕地流失的EKC关系及其影响因素

EKC Relationship Between Urban Expansion and Farmland Loss in Jingzhou City and Its Influencing Factors

[目的]以荆州市为例,探讨城市扩张与耕地流失的关系及其对经济增长的影响。[方法]利用中国30 m年度土地覆盖数据集,分析1990—2019年城市扩张和耕地流失的时空格局及区域差异。引入环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)假设,通过省级面板数据回归分析,检验城市扩张与经济增长的关系,并利用未来城市用地扩张(FULE)数据集预测未来情景下的耕地压力。[结果]城市扩张是耕地流失的主要原因,城市扩张的面积占新建城市用地面积的76%和耕地流失面积的28%。县级以上城市更倾向于利用耕地进行建设,而县级以下城市则有更多耕地转化为其他用途。城市扩张与耕地流失之间存在倒U型关系,表明耕地流失随经济增长先增后减,2012年达到拐点后开始脱钩。一些沿江和大型城市已经进入耕地流失减少的阶段,而一些内陆和中小型城市仍处于耕地流失增加的阶段。预计到2050年,荆州市将有30万~40万hm^(2)耕地被城市用地占用,三、四线城市损失最大。[结论]建议加强土地规划管理,控制城市扩张,优化土地利用结构,提高土地利用效率,保护耕地资源,并促进区域协调发展,实现经济与环境的平衡。

[Objective]Taking Jingzhou City as an example,this paper discussed the relationship between urban expansion and farmland loss and its impact on economic growth.[Method]Using a 30-meter annual land cover dataset in China,the spatial and temporal patterns and regional differences of urban expansion and farmland loss during 1990-2019 were analyzed.The environmental Kuznets curve(EKC)hypothesis was introduced to test the relationship between urban expansion and economic growth through regression analysis of provincial panel data,and the future urban land expansion(FULE)dataset was used to predict farmland pressure under future scenarios.[Result]Urban expansion was the main cause of farmland loss,accounting for 76%of newly built urban land and 28%of farmland loss.Cities above the county level were more inclined to use farmland for construction,while cities below the county level had more farmland converted to other uses.There was an inverted U-shaped relationship between urban expansion and farmland loss,indicating that the loss of farmland increased first and then decreased with economic growth,and began to decouple after reaching an inflection point in 2012.Some coastal and large cities had entered a stage of reduced farmland loss,while some inland and small and medium-sized cities were still in a stage of increased farmland loss.It was estimated that by 2050,0.3-0.4 million hectares of arable land in Jingzhou will be occupied by urban land,and third-and fourth-tier cities will suffer the most losses.[Conclusion]It was recommended to strengthen land planning and management,control urban expansion,optimize land use structure,improve land use efficiency,protect arable land resources,promote regional coordinated development,and achieve a balance between economy and environment.