土地财政和地方政府隐性债务——基于新冠疫情冲击的视角

Land Finance and Local Government Hidden Debt:Based on the Shock of the New Coronary Pneumonia Epidemic

改革开放以来,随着房价的迅速上涨,地方政府对于土地财政的依赖程度不断提高。分税制改革后,地方政府出现了财权和事权高度不匹配的现象,入不敷出的财政压力促使地方政府融资平台应运而生,城投债的无序扩张引发地方政府隐性债务风险。本文选取2015—2022年发行的城投债作为研究对象,探讨各城市土地出让收入对城投债信用利差的影响,并区分不同类型土地出让收入、不同市场化水平、不同地方财政实力和不同经济区域进行异质性分析。另外,本文构建新冠疫情冲击变量,引入广义双重差分模型,研究新冠疫情作为外生冲击对土地出让收入和城投债信用利差之间关系的调节效应,最后,本文将被解释变量、解释变量和新冠疫情冲击变量等替换进行稳健性检验,并进一步分析不同类型担保增信机构的风险缓释效果。实证结论显示,土地出让收入的增加可以有效降低城投债信用利差,新冠疫情的外生冲击将提高城投债的信用利差,并且削弱土地出让收入和城投债信用利差之间的负相关关系,并在很多方面具有较大的异质性。进一步分析,不同类型的担保增信机构可以发挥不同的风险缓释效果,相较于无担保城投债,外部专业担保城投债的发行溢价更低,而内部关联担保城投债的发行溢价更高。

Since the reform and opening up,with the rapid rise of housing prices,local governments dependence on land finance has been increasing.After the reform of the tax system,the local government has a high degree of mismatch between financial and administrative rights,and the financial pressure of not being able to make ends meet has prompted the emergence of local government financing platforms,and the disorderly expansion of municipal investment bonds has triggered the risk of hidden debt of local governments.This paper selects the municipal investment bonds issued in 2015-2022 as the research object,explores the impact of each city s land transfer revenue on the credit spread of municipal investment bonds,and distinguishes between different types of land transfer revenues,different levels of marketisation,different local financial strengths,and different economic regions for heterogeneity analysis.In addition,this paper constructs the new crown pneumonia epidemic shock variable and introduces the generalised double difference model to study the moderating effect of the new crown pneumonia epidemic as an exogenous shock on the relationship between land transfer revenues and municipal investment bond credit spreads,and finally,this paper replaces the explanatory variables,the explanatory variables and the new crown epidemic shock variable to carry out the robustness test,and further analyses the risk mitigating effect of different types of guaranteed credit enhancement institutions.The empirical findings show that the increase of land grant revenue can effectively reduce the credit spreads of municipal bonds,and the exogenous shock of the Xin Guan Pneumonia epidemic will increase the credit spreads of municipal bonds,and weaken the negative correlation between the land grant revenue and the credit spreads of municipal bonds,and in many ways have a large heterogeneity.Further analysis shows that different types of guaranteed credit enhancers can have different risk mitigation effects,with lower issuance premiums for externally professionally guaranteed municipal bonds compared to unguaranteed municipal bonds,and higher issuance premiums for internally affiliated guaranteed municipal bonds.