南方区域电力碳排放趋势与预测分析——基于STIRPAT模型的研究

Analysis of Carbon Emission Trends and Forecasts for Electricity in Southern China:Research based on STIRPAT Model

以南方电网管辖的五省区2011—2020年的数据为基础,借助STIRPAT模型评估南方区域电力碳排放变化趋势。研究发现:本地区的人口增长和经济发展均会显著增加本地区的碳排放,本地区的技术进步会显著降低本地区的碳排放;其他地区的人口增长会显著增加本地区的碳排放,其他地区的经济发展会显著降低本地区的碳排放,其他地区的技术变化不会显著影响本地区的碳排放。进一步运用Holt双指数平滑模型预测2021—2025年电力碳排放变化趋势,发现未来广东一直是最大的碳排放来源地,广西和云南始终是较大的碳排放来源地,贵州和海南的碳排放地位越来越低;未来广东的碳排放呈现较为稳定增长的趋势,广西和云南的碳排放呈快速增长的趋势,海南的碳排放增长较慢,贵州的碳排放下降较快。

Based on data of five provinces in South China from 2011 to 2020,a STIRPAT model is applied to estimate the trend of carbon emissions generated from electric power.The results show that carbon emissions in local area will be significantly increased with the growth of its population and the development of its economy,but will be significantly decreased with its technical progress.Besides,carbon emissions in local area will be significantly increased with the growth of other area's population,but will be significantly decreased with the development of other area's economy,and will be not significantly influences with other area's technical progress.Furthermore,the Holt exponential smoothing model is applied to forecast carbon emissions generated from electric power from 2021 to 2025.Results show that in future,Guangdong will always be the largest source of carbon emissions,Guangxi and Yunnan will always be larger sources of carbon emissions,and Guizhou and Hainan will be less important in carbon emissions.Finally,carbon emissions in Guangdong will show a relatively stable growth trend,carbon emissions in Guangxi and Yunnan will show a rapid growth trend,carbon emissions in Hainan will grow slowly,but carbon emissions in Guizhou will decline rapidly.