土地财政依赖与城市经济高质量发展——基于278个城市的门槛效应分析

Dependence of Land Finance and High-quality Development of Urban Economy:Threshold Effect Analysis based on Data from 278 Cities

土地财政收入是城市经济早期发展的重要支撑力量,但土地财政的过度依赖是否会削弱甚至抑制城市经济高质量发展仍有待明确。选取2012—2022年中国地级及以上共278个城市的面板数据,以城市经济高质量发展的产业生产总值和公共服务水平两方面作为被解释变量,探究土地财政依赖度作为核心变量的门槛效应。研究结果表明:土地财政依赖度的持续加深,会削弱对城市经济高质量发展的拉动作用,具备显著的门槛效应;中国东部、中部和西部地区土地财政依赖度的门槛效应存在差异;相对公共服务水平而言,城市生产总值对土地财政依赖度的反应更为敏感。基于此,建议地方政府转变经济发展方式,摆脱土地财政依赖。

Land fiscal revenue is an important supporting force for the early development of urban economy,but it is still unclear whether excessive reliance on land finance will weaken or even inhibit the high-quality development of urban economy.Select the panel data of 278 cities at or above the prefecture level in China from 2012 to 2022,this paper takes the gross industrial product and public service level of high-quality urban economic development as the explanatory variables,and explores the threshold effect of land fiscal dependence as the core variable.The research results indicate that the continuous intensification of land fiscal dependence will weaken the driving effect on high-quality regional economic development,and have a significant threshold effect;There are differences in the threshold effect of land fiscal dependence in the eastern,central,and western regions of China;Compared with the level of public services,gross regional product is more sensitive to the degree of financial dependence on land.Based on this suggestion,local governm-ents should transform their economic development mode and break free from financial dependence on land.