1990—2020年新疆用水量时空演化格局及影响因素分析

Spatiotemporal evolutionary patterns and influencing factors of water use in Xinjiang from 1990 to 2020

干旱缺水是新疆自然地理的基本特征,理解用水时空演化格局及其影响因素是水资源需求管理的前提。采用对数均值迪氏指数(LMDI)方法,解析1990—2020年新疆用水量时间变化趋势和空间差异格局的影响因素,并分析其人均用水量高于中国西北其他地区和全国平均水平的主要原因。结果表明:(1)新疆用水总量先升后降,人均用水量整体呈现下降趋势。(2)用水强度和产业结构变化是促使新疆用水总量下降的主要原因。(3)较高的用水强度和以农业为主导的产业结构是新疆人均用水量远高于中国西北其他地区和全国平均水平的主要原因。(4)新疆人均用水量空间差异大,主要原因是用水强度、人均GDP和产业结构差异。基于研究结果,提出了相关用水管理政策建议,为新疆水资源可持续开发利用提供科学参考。

Drought and water scarcity are inherent features of Xinjiang’s physical geography.It is crucial to understand the spatiotemporal evolutionary patterns and influencing factors of water use for effective water resources demand management.In this study,we investigated the influencing factors which drive the temporal change and spatial heterogeneity in water use pattern in Xinjiang from 1990 to 2020 using the logarithmic mean Divisia index(LMDI)method.In addition,we quantified the main influencing factors contributing to higher per capita water use in Xinjiang in comparison to the average levels of other regions in northwest China and whole China.The conclusions can be drawn:(1)The total water use in Xinjiang showed a first increasing then decreasing trend,whereas per capita water use showed an overall declining trend.(2)The change of water use intensity and industrial structure were the main reasons for the decline of total water use in Xinjiang.(3)High water intensity and agriculture dominated industrial structure were the main reasons for higher per capita water use in Xinjiang than other regions in northwest China and whole China.(4)Per capita water use across various prefectures in Xinjiang exhibited significant spatial heterogeneity,primarily attributable to variations in water use intensity,per capita GDP,and industrial structure.Based on the main results,we propose relevant water management policy recommendations,which can provide a scientific reference for sustainable water use and management in Xinjiang.