基于Joinpoint回归模型分析2005—2021我国甲型肝炎发病趋势

Incidence trend of hepatitis A in China from 2005 to 2021:an analysis based on Joinpoint regression model

目的分析2005—2021年我国甲型肝炎(甲肝)报告发病率的变化趋势,为甲肝的防治工作提供参考。方法从中国疾病预防控制中心的公共卫生科学数据中心和国家卫生健康委员会疾病预防控制局的工作动态以及国家统计局的人口资料中分别获取疾病数据和人口数据。采用Joinpoint回归模型分析我国甲肝报告发病趋势。结果2005—2021年我国共报告582531例甲肝病例,年平均报告发病率为2.5343/10万,平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)为-10.00%(P<0.001),呈下降趋势。2005—2018年我国有26个省级行政区甲肝报告发病率呈下降趋势(P<0.05或P<0.01),5个省级行政区报告发病率呈平稳趋势(均P>0.05);除1~<2岁组和≥85岁组变化趋势无统计学意义(均P>0.05)外,其他年龄组为下降趋势(均P<0.01)。结论2005—2021年我国甲肝总体报告发病率处于下降趋势,但仍需落实健康教育,强化人群疾病预防意识和自我保护能力。

Objective To analyze the incidence trend of hepatitis A in China from 2005 to 2021,and provide the scientific reference for the prevention and treatment of hepatitis A.Methods Disease data and population data were obtained from the Public Health Science Data Center of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the work dynamics of the Bureau of Disease Control and Prevention of the National Health Commission,as well as the population data of the National Bureau of Statistics.Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the reported incidence trend of hepatitis A in China.Results A total of 582531 cases of hepatitis A were reported in China from 2005 to 2021,with an average annual reported incidence of 2.5343/100000 and an average annual percent change(AAPC)of-10.00%(P<0.001),showing a downward trend.From 2005 to 2018,the reported incidence of hepatitis A showed a decreasing trend in 26 provincial administrative regions(P<0.05 or P<0.01),and a stable trend in 5 provincial administrative regions(all P>0.05).There was no statistical significance in the 1-year-old group and the≥85 year-old group(both P>0.05),and the other age groups showed a downward trend(all P<0.01).Conclusion The overall reported incidence of hepatitis A in China from 2005 to 2021 is in a downward trend,but it is still necessary to implement health education and strengthen the disease prevention awareness and self-protection ability of the population.