贵阳市“无废城市”建设与双碳目标协同性研究

Research on the Synergy Between the Construction of“Waste-Free City”and the Dual Carbon Target in Guiyang

为探究“无废城市”建设与实现碳达峰、碳中和目标的协同性,以贵阳市主城区为研究对象,利用IPCC推荐模型对生活垃圾处理中温室气体的历史排放量进行核算,采用LMDI加和分解法结合改进Kaya恒等式确定影响温室气体排放的驱动因素,并结合贵阳市生活垃圾管理政策对碳减排潜力进行预测。研究结果表明:2002—2021年,贵阳市城市生活垃圾处理中温室气体排放量从11.1万t增长到68.8万t(以CO_(2)为当量计),年均增长率为10.08%,卫生填埋是最主要的温室气体排放源;经济产出、人口规模、废弃物处理碳排放强度和城市化率是城市生活垃圾处理温室气体排放的主要驱动因素;与基准情景相比,到2035年,城市生活垃圾分类、技术转型以及综合情景下温室气体的减排潜力分别为39.63%、50.28%和72.94%;依据现有贵阳市生活垃圾处理规划实施,将促使生活垃圾处理领域产生的温室气体在2025年前达峰。

In order to explore the synergy between the construction of“waste-free city”and the realization of the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality,the main urban area of Guiyang City was taken as the research object.Based on the data from 2002 to 2021,the historical emissions of greenhouse gases in the treatment of domestic waste were calculated,and the driving factors affecting greenhouse gas emissions were determined by LMDI addition and decomposition method together with improved Kaya identity.Combined with Guiyang municipal solid waste management policy,the potential of mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions was predicted.The results show that from 2002 to 2021,the greenhouse gas emissions from municipal solid waste treatment in Guiyang city increased from 111000 t to 688000 t(measured as CO_(2)),with an average annual growth rate of 10.08%.Sanitary landfill is the main source of greenhouse gas emissions.Economic output,population size,carbon emission intensity and urbanization rate are the main driving factors affecting Greenhouse Gas emissions from municipal solid waste(MSW)treatment.Compared with the baseline scenario,the greenhouse gas emission reduction potential of MSW classification,technology transformation and comprehensive scenario by 2035 will be 39.63%,50.28%and 72.94%,respectively.According to the implementation of the existing domestic waste treatment plan in Guiyang,the greenhouse gas generated by the domestic waste treatment field will peak before 2025.