中国水-能-粮耦合系统协同安全发展战略研究

Research on the collaborative safety development strategy of Water-Energy-Food Nexus in China

水是水-能-粮(WEF)耦合系统的核心要素,为保障国家粮食和能源安全,必须加强水资源管理,坚持水资源、能源和粮食协同安全发展。在系统总结国内外WEF耦合系统纽带关系研究进展、科学认识WEF基本内涵的基础上,分析了我国各省份水资源、能源、粮食开发利用过程中存在的问题,揭示当前WEF耦合系统发展面临的能源需求持续增长与能源安全结构性矛盾日益凸显、不稳定因素加剧粮食安全风险、资源不匹配带来水资源约束趋紧、高质量发展对水-能-粮-生提出更高要求四大挑战,围绕区域特点和高质量发展目标,针对性提出了区域可持续发展模式与策略。研究建议,在西北资源富集地区,通过“四水四定”、水权交易及调水工程缓解水资源短缺;在京津冀地下水超采区,优化粮食安全布局,强化水与能源协同调控;在东北粮食增产区,拓展粮食生产空间,保护水资源合理开发利用;在南方水资源丰沛区,深化农业供给侧结构性改革,统筹“水风光储”一体化开发,以期为实现绿色低碳的可持续发展路径提供科学支撑与决策参考。

Water constitutes the central element within the Water-Energy-Food(WEF)Nexus.To safeguard national food and energy security,it is essential to strengthen water resource management and ensure the coordinated safety development of water,energy,and food.Based on a comprehensive review of research progress on the WEF Nexus both domestically and internationally,as well as a scientific understanding of the fundamental principles of the WEF Nexus,this paper analyzes the prevailing issues in the development and utilization of water resources,energy,and food in various provinces of China.It reveals four major challenges facing the current development of the WEF Nexus:the growing energy demand intensifies the structural contradictions in energy security,increasing instability exacerbates food security risks,resource mismatches tighten water resource constraints,and high-quality development imposes higher requirements on water-energy-food-ecology systems.Targeted regional sustainable development models and strategies are proposed,tailored to regional characteristics and high-quality development goals.Research indicates that in resource-rich Northwest China,water scarcity can be alleviated through the“Four Waters and Four Determinations”policy,water rights trading,and water transfer projects.In the groundwater overexploitation areas of the Jing-Jin-Ji region,it is necessary to optimize the food security layout and strengthen the coordinated regulation of water and energy.In Northeast China’s grain production areas,food production space should be expanded while ensuring the rational development and utilization of water resources.In southern regions abundant in water resources,deepening agricultural supply-side structural reform and promoting integrated development of“Water-Wind-Solar-Storage”is essential.This research aims to provide scientific support and decision-making references for navigating towards a green,low-carbon,and sustainable development path.