城市房价对流动人口居留意愿的影响效应——以长三角地区为例

THE IMPACT OF URBAN HOUSING PRICE ON THE SETTLEMENT INTENTION OF FLOATING POPULATION:A CASE STUDY OF THE YANGTZE RIVER DELTA REGION

以长三角地区为研究区,利用探索性空间数据分析探究2012—2018年城市房价与流动人口居留意愿的空间相关性,借助空间面板计量模型和时空地理加权回归模型揭示城市房价对流动人口居留意愿的整体影响及空间异质性规律。研究发现:(1)长三角房价呈“东高西低”态势,流动人口居留意愿呈“西高东低”态势,房价及居留意愿均表现出上升趋势。(2)城市房价与流动人口居留意愿均呈较强的空间正相关性,但两者间存在显著的空间负相关性,单变量局部空间类型以高—高型和低—低型为主。(3)城市房价对流动人口居留意愿整体影响为负,房价影响的正值区逐渐转移至安徽中南部,房价影响的负值区扩散至大部分地区。(4)房价稳定助推流动人口居留意愿的提高,房价快速上涨将阻碍居留意愿的提高。

Housing price are a hot topic of social concern and a crucial factor influencing the settlement and well-being of the floating population.This study examines 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta region from 2012 to 2018.By employing exploratory spatial data analysis,we investigate the spatial correlation between urban housing prices and the willingness of floating population to reside in specific areas.Through the utilization of spatial panel econometric models and geographically and temporally weighted regression(GTWR)models,we reveal the overall impact and spatial heterogeneity patterns of urban housing price on the settlement intentions of the floating population.The findings are as follows:1)Housing price in the Yangtze River Delta region exhibit an"east high,west low"pattern,while the settlement intentions of the floating population show a"west high,east low"pattern.Both housing price and settlement intentions demonstrate an upward trend,with increased spatial disparities in housing price and reduced spatial disparities in settlement intentions.2)There is a strong positive spatial correlation between urban housing price and the settlement intentions of the floating population.However,a significant negative spatial correlation exists between the two factors.3)Urban housing price have an overall negative impact on the settlement intentions of the floating population.4)Stable housing price contribute to an increase in the settlement intentions of the floating population,whereas rapid increases in housing price hinder such intentions.