美联储加息、研发投入下降与新兴经济体经济波动

Federal Reserve Rate hikes,Declining R&D Investment and Economic Fluctuations in Emerging Economies

美联储加息会对新兴经济体产生显著影响,现有研究较少关注美联储加息对新兴经济体企业研发的影响。首先,文章实证检验了美联储加息对新兴经济体企业研发的影响,并识别了影响渠道。其次,文章构建了一个内生化生产率变动的小国开放模型,以探究美联储加息对新兴经济体企业研发的影响。数值模拟结果表明,美联储加息会显著提高企业的风险溢价和融资成本,降低研发新技术的预期收益、知识转化为技术的概率和新技术的利用率。反事实模拟结果表明,金融摩擦程度和外债规模会放大美联储加息对新兴经济体企业研发的负面冲击。最后,文章针对美联储加息对新兴经济体企业研发的影响给出了相关的政策建议。

The Federal Reserve′s interest rate hike will have a broad impact on emerging economies,and existing literature pays less attention to the impact of the Fed′s interest rate hike on the research and development of firms in emerging economies.This paper first empirically tests the impact of the Federal Reserve′s interest rate hike on the research and development of emerging economy firms,and identifies the channels of influence.Afterwards,this paper constructed a small open economy model with endogenous productivity changes to explore the impact of the Federal Reserve′s interest rate hikes on the research,development of emerging economy firms.Numerical simulations show that the Federal Reserve′s interest rate hike will significantly increase the risk premium for businesses,raise financing costs and lead to a decrease in expected returns on research,development of new technologies,a decrease in the probability of knowledge being converted into technology,ultimately a decrease in the utilization of new technologies.Counterfactual simulations indicate that the degree of financial friction and the scale of external debt will amplify the negative impact of the Federal Reserve′s interest rate hikes on the research and development of emerging economy enterprises.Finally,we provide relevant policy recommendations regarding the impact of the Federal Reserve′s interest rate hike on the research and development of firms in emerging economies.