21世纪海上丝绸之路港口贸易韧性发展与中国战略响应

Port trade resilience development along the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road and China's strategic response

以21世纪海上丝绸之路沿线53个港口为研究对象,选取2008—2019年港口集装箱吞吐量数据,从抵抗力和恢复力两个维度测度港口贸易韧性发展水平,运用标准差椭圆等方法研究沿线港口贸易韧性分布格局与时空演化规律。结果表明:①海上丝绸之路沿线港口贸易韧性表现良好,恢复力远高于全球港口平均水平,整体韧性上升态势明显。②沿线港口贸易韧性的分布格局总体呈现西北-东南方向,东西方向延伸差异比南北方向差异更为显著,在时空演化上表现为分布更加分散,空间差异逐渐减小。③中国各港口在三次冲击中韧性值差异显著,整体呈现稳中向好的发展态势。基于研究结论,提出中国港口发展的战略响应对策:将韧性发展纳入港口高质量发展评价体系,强化与重要战略港口的差异化合作策略,响应世界航运和贸易重心东移的行业趋势,加快形成内外循环相互促进的港口发展新格局。

Taking 53 ports along the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road as the research object,container throughput data of ports from 2008 to 2019 were selected to measure the port trade resilience and analyze the characteristics from two dimensions of resistance and resilience.The results show that:①The resilience of ports along the Maritime Silk Road is good,and the resilience is much higher than the global average level of ports,and the overall resilience is obviously on the rise.②The overall pattern of port trade resilience along the route presents a northwest southeast direction,with more significant differences in east-west extension compared to northsouth direction.In terms of spatial-temporal evolution,the distribution is more dispersed,and spatial differences continue to decrease.③In the three shocks,the resilience values of Chinese ports differ significantly,and the overall development trend is stable and good.According to the research conclusions,policy suggestions are put forward:incorporating resilient development into high-quality port development evaluation system,strengthen differentiated cooperation strategies with important strategic ports,respond to the industry trend of the world shipping and trade center moving eastward,and Accelerate the forming a new port development pattern in which internal and external circulation promote each other.