中国能源的“不可能三角”真的不可能吗——基于耦合协调度模型的实证检验

Is the"Impossible Triangle"of the energy in China really impossible?An empirical test based on Coupling Coordination Degree Model

在碳达峰、碳中和背景下,能源“不可能三角”可能是制约我国实现能源高质量发展的关键问题。以中国30个省域为研究对象,通过构建能源安全可靠-经济可行-绿色清洁(以下简称“安全-经济-绿色”)评价指标体系,综合运用熵值法、耦合协调模型、核密度估计和静态面板模型等方法对2005—2019年我国能源“安全-经济-绿色”的发展水平及其耦合协调度的时序演进、空间分异以及收敛特征进行了全面研究。结果表明:在时序演进层面,2005—2019年,我国能源“安全-经济-绿色”耦合协调度总体呈稳步上升态势,逐步由轻度失调上升到濒临失调水平,且极化现象逐步减弱,但大多数时段仍处于“轻度失调”状态。在空间分异层面,我国能源“安全-经济-绿色”耦合协调度存在一定的空间异质性,呈现出东部和西部地区高、中部和东北地区低的分异格局,且各区域均未发生显著的等级迁跃。在空间收敛层面,全国与四大区域的能源“安全-经济-绿色”耦合协调度皆具有明显的绝对β收敛与条件β收敛特征,但低耦合协调度区域相较于高耦合协调度区域具有更快的上升速度。综合来看,目前我国确实存在一定的能源“不可能三角”问题,但从趋势上看,这一问题正在逐步缓解。

In the context of carbon peak and carbon neutralization,the Energy Impossible Triangle may be the key variable that restricts the high-quality energy development in China.Taking 30 provinces in China as the research object,this paper established an evaluation index system of energy security and reliability,economic feasibility,green and low-carbon(hereinafter referred to as"Security-Economy-Green").By using the entropy method,coupling coordination degree model and kernel density estimation method,this paper comprehensively studied the development level of energy"Security-Economy-Green"in China from 2005 to 2019,as well as the temporal evolution,spatial differentiation and convergence characteristics of the coupling coordination degree.The results show that:①In the aspect of the temporal evolution,from 2005 to 2019,the coupling coordination degree of energy"Security-Economy-Green"has been steadily increasing,gradually rising from the mild imbalance level to the near imbalance level,and the polarization phenomenon has gradually weakened,but most of the periods are in the state of"mild imbalance".②In terms of spatial differentiation,our country energy"Security-Economy-Green"coupling coordination degree shows certain spatial heterogeneity,presenting the spatial differentiation pattern of"high in eastern and western regions,low in central and northeast regions".No significant rank transition occurred in each region and energy spatial pattern has certain locking characteristics or path dependence.③As for the space convergence,the nation and four regions have absolute β convergence and conditional β convergence characteristics,and energy"Security-Economy-Green"coupling coordination degree will eventually converge to the same steady state level over time.The region with a low coupling coordination degree grows faster compared to the high,and the regional gap is narrowing.Taken together,there is indeed a certain Energy Impossible Triangle problem in our country at present,but according to the trend,this problem is being gradually alleviated.Finally,from the perspective of dialectics and countermeasures,we put forward some thoughts on the Energy Impossible Triangle.