基于广义相加模型的气象要素交互作用对银川市流感影响研究

Impact of meteorological factor interaction on influenza based on GAM model in Yinchuan

目的 探讨气象要素对银川市流感样病例(influenza-like illness,ILI)的影响效应。方法 收集银川市2005-2021年逐日ILI例数和同期气象资料,采用Spearman相关分析和广义相加模型(GAM)综合分析气象因子对ILI例数变化的影响效应。结果 银川市ILI例数与一周以内的日平均气温、气压、相对湿度、风速、降水量以及日照时数均存在明显相关性。单影响因素的GAM模型中,以上所有气象因素均明显影响ILI例数变化(P<0.01);多影响因素的GAM模型拟合结果显示,气压、气温、相对湿度及日照时数4个因子有统计学意义,模型调整判定系数为0.585,方差解释率为60.4%,拟合度高于单一气象因子对ILI例数变化的拟合效应,反映出ILI例数的变化受多种气象因子共同作用。结合三维可视化图形直观分析4个主要气象因子间交互作用对ILI例数变化的影响特征,发现气温是影响ILI发病的主导气象因素,当日平均气温低于12℃时,随着气温下降,发病风险增大,而平均气温高于12℃时对流感发病无明显影响。结论 气温是影响银川市流感发病的关键气象要素,可为银川市流感预警预测等提供科学依据。

Objective To understand the impact of meteorological factors on the incidence of influenza in Yinchuan.Methods The daily influenza like cases(ILI cases)and meteorological data from 2005 to 2021 in Yinchuan were collected,and Spearman correlation analysis and generalized additive models(GAM)were used to analyze the impact of meteorological factors on changes in ILI cases.Results There was a significant correlation between the number of ILI cases and the daily average temperature,pressure,relative humidity,wind speed,precipitation and sunshine hours within a week in Yinchuan.In the GAM model with a single influencing factor,all of the above meteorological factors significantly affected the change in ILI cases at the 0.001 reliability level.However,the fitting results of the GAM model with multiple influencing factors showed that the four factors of air pressure,temperature,relative humidity and sunshine hours passed the significance test,the adjusted judgment coefficient of the model was 0.585,and the variance explanation rate was 60.4%,the fitting degree was higher than the fitting effect of a single meteorological factor on the change in ILI cases,demonstrated that the changes in the number of ILI cases were influenced by multiple meteorological factors.By combining three-dimensional visualization graphics to visually analyze the impact characteristics of the interaction between four main meteorological factors on the number of ILI cases,it was found that temperature was the dominant meteorological factor affecting the incidence of influenza.When the daily average temperature was below 12℃,the risk of influenza increased as the temperature decreased,while when the daily average temperature was above 12℃,there was no impact on influenza incidence.Conclusion Temperature is a key meteorological factor for the incidence of influenza in Yinchuan.