具有两种传播途径和潜伏期时滞的登革热传播模型的全局稳定性与最优控制分析

Global stability and optimal control analysis of a dengue transmission model with two transmission pathways and incubation delay

该文研究了一类具有两种传播途径和潜伏期时滞的登革热传播模型.利用下一代算子的方法得到了系统的基本再生数.通过构造适当的Lyapunov泛函,证明了系统各可行平衡点的全局稳定性.利用Pontryagin极小值原理,讨论了预防和控制登革热传播的最优策略.最后,基于2014年广东省感染登革热的实际病例数进行数据拟合.

A dengue transmission model with two transmission pathways and incubation delay is studied.The basic reproduction number of the system is obtained by the next generation operator method.By constructing appropriate Lyapunov functional,the global stability of each of feasible equi-libria of the system is proved.Optimal strategy for the prevention and control of dengue transmission is discussed based on Pontryagin’s minimum principle.Finally,datafitting is conducted based on the actual number of dengue cases in Guangdong Province in 2014.