基于CLUE-S和Markov模型的土地利用变化模拟预测

Simulation and Prediction of Land Use Change Based on CLUE-S and Markov Models

土地利用变化过程是极其复杂的,主要是因为其在变化的过程中不仅仅是单一因素作用的结果,而是多种因素掺杂在一起形成的复杂过程。在经济快速发展的今天,一旦区域土地利用存在不合理的情况,极容易影响区域资源可持续利用以及和谐稳定的状态,土地利用变化模拟预测可以改善土地利用结构、提高土地利用效率,帮助相关部门规划国土空间布局,缓解人地矛盾,实现自然资源可持续发展。本文是基于高分辨率遥感影像解译得到靖远县2期土地利用数据,并利用CLUE-S与Markov模型相结合的方法对靖远县未来土地利用变化从自然发展、耕地保护和生态安全三种情景进行预测。结果表明,(1)CLUE-S模型相对于小尺度的土地利用变化模拟预测的效果较好,精度较高。(2)建设用地在自然发展情景下的增加是最为显著的,在其他两种情景下受到限制因素后在减少,草地和耕地只有在自然发展情景下是减少,林地只在耕地保护情景下是减少,水域用地和未利用地都在自然发展情景下是增加的。(3)生态安全情景与耕地保护情景对未来土地利用变化的调控效果较好,林地、草地和耕地受到了更好的保护。研究表明,区域土地利用模拟预测可以更好地为土地利用规划编制提供参考。

The process of land use change is extremely complex,mainly because it is not only the result of a single factor in the process of change,but also a complex process formed by many factors.In today's rapid economic development,once the regional land use is unreasonable,it is very easy to affect the sustainable use of regional resources and the harmonious and stable state.The simulation and prediction of land use change can improve the land use structure,improve the efficiency of land use,help relevant departments to plan the spatial layout of land,alleviate the contradiction between people and land,and achieve the sustainable development of natural resources.This paper is based on the interpretation of high-resolution remote sensing images to obtain the land use data of Jingyuan County Phase II,using the method of combining CLUE-S and Markov model to predict the future land use change of Jingyuan County in three different scenarios:natural development,farmland protection and ecological security.The results show that,(1)CLUE-S model is relatively good for small-scale land use change simulation and prediction,with high accuracy.(2)The increase of construction land is the most significant under the natural development scenario,and it is decreasing after being restricted under the other two scenarios,grassland and cultivated land are reduced only under the natural development scenario,the forest land only decreases under the cultivated land protection scenario,water area land and unused land are increasing under the natural development scenario.(3)The ecological security scenario and culivated land protection scenario have a good control effect on future land use change,and forest land,grassland and cultivated land have been better protected.The research shows that,the regional land use simulation and prediction can provide reference for better land use planning.