工业机器人、劳动力市场差异与婚姻决策

Industrial Robots,Labor Market Differences,and Marriage Decisions

劳动者的就业状况和收入水平是影响婚姻决策的重要因素。工业机器人的广泛应用冲击了就业和收入,深刻影响了劳动力市场。本文基于工业机器人数据和微观个体调查数据,探讨了工业机器人应用对婚姻市场的影响及其机制。研究结果表明,工业机器人应用降低了女性的结婚意愿,推迟了男性和女性的初婚年龄。该结论在内生性处理及稳健性检验下依然成立。机制分析发现,工业机器人应用使得男性就业稳定性变差、女性获得更高的收入溢价,从而使男性在婚姻市场上的经济地位和议价能力相对降低,女性相对提高,婚姻决策随之改变。进一步研究发现,工业机器人应用主要使得20~34岁的女性结婚意愿降低、高中及以下学历的男性和各教育分组女性初婚年龄推迟。对于已婚群体而言,工业机器人应用能够提高女性的婚姻满意度。

Workers'job status and income levels play an important role in marriage decisions.The rise of industrial robots has shaken up jobs and incomes,profoundly affecting the labor market.This study dives into how industrial robots influence the marriage market using data from robot applications and individual surveys.Our findings show that the rise of industrial robots makes women less eager to get married,pushing back the age of first marriage for both men and women.This conclusion holds up under endogeneity treatment and robustness checks.Analysis reveals that industrial robots lead to less job stability for men and higher incomes for women.This shifts the economic power in the marriage market-men's bargaining power drops while women's rises,changing how marriage decisions are made.Further research shows that women aged between 20 and 34 are particularly less inclined to marry because of industrial robots.The industrial robots also push back the first marriage age for men with a high school education or less,and for women across all education levels.For those already married,industrial robots can boost marital happiness for women.